August JOLTS report conforms to prior early recession recovery pattern   Yesterday’s JOLTS report for August showed a jobs market that is still just beginning to mend. Hires were up,…

Real personal spending declines in December, while income rises; not quite enough to start a “double-dip” recession This morning’s report on personal income and spending for December reversed the pattern…

…three of the last four recessions, house prices followed suit before the onset of the recession (prior to 2001, which was not a consumer recession, house price increases stabilized). Similarly,…

Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year  Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for…

…12 months, you’re in a recession. That’s somewhat conservative. On at least two occasions, 1953 and 1970, the unemployment rate only went up 0.1% for 1 month before a recession…

First comments on Q2 GDP: no, we’re not in a recession (yet)  – by New Deal democrat When the negative print on Q1 GDP first came out three months ago,…

…Financial Crisis and Great Recession. This was the worst US recession since the Great Depression. This led to the first $1 trillion annual budget deficit in US history and dramatically…

Initial jobless claims: still at distress levels, still not red flag recession warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims dropped -26,000 last week to 239,000, the top of their…

Initial claims move closer to red flag recession warning  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims declined -12,000 last week to 237,000. The four week average declined -6,750 to…

…their expansion peaks before every single recession in the past 50 years except for when the pandemic suddenly shut down the economy: Not every slight decline means a recession is…