…he is willing to use the R word: Hoenig’s views on the economy were relatively upbeat, even as he described the nation as being “at the brink of a recession.”…

Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year Nominal retail sales for the month of May declined -0.3%, and April was…

Index of leading indicators says recession almost certain; so what of the coincident indicators? – by New Deal democrat This week is one of those where almost all of the…

…of sectors that turn down prior to recessions. I haven’t updated this in a while, so let’s take a look. As an initial matter, the cycle in this sector was…

…activity in this sector – follow permits (and starts) with a lag. And secondly that when there have been recessions, the number of units under construction continued to decline right…

…the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal ordering of the spending…

…arising from the war with Iran have not put the US economy into recession as of now. First, here are stock prices for the last year: One year ago, the…

…and employment. One of their findings: As this chart shows, relatively high labor productivity growth during a recession is not a phenomenon isolated to the 2007–09 and 2001 recessions (for…

…unemployment recession and the resulting decrease in payroll tax receipts has resulted in a decrease in the RATE of increase of Trust Fund Balances, but in order to get that…

…is that he “thinks” the recession is over, rather than it “is” over. His strategic announcement plays on market expectations to the upside, just as announcing that the recession is…