…we’ve waited til we believe we are at some measure of full capacity utilization and then we’ve raised rates, every time we’ve done it we’ve brought about a recession.” Mr….

…average 1 in 2010 and is usually about 1 except during recessions). It then jumped up to 1.07685. This is the sort of thing which usually happens during recessions (which…

…picture? Let me add the effective Fed rate to the first graph, and make some comments. Generally, the Fed rate will fall during a recession. Then after a recession, the…

by New Deal democrat ISM new orders surge to 58.3: the shallow industrial recession is ending OK, probably ending, since nothing is perfect. But if there are reasons to be…

…head upwards. When the trend starts to go positive, a recession is imminent. The trend is just now hitting 0% which in the last two business cycles signaled a recession…

Mortgage rates probably have to top 5% to tip housing into a recession-leading downturn I’ve pointed out many times that, generally speaking, mortgage rates lead home sales. It’s not the…

by New Deal democrat What does a “Recession Watch” mean? On Wednesday I went on “Recession Watch” beginning Q4 of this year. Yesterday I explained what that means in detail…

by New Deal democrat Sales rebound from government shutdown-induced “mini-recession;” March housing lays an egg While March retail sales rose strongly, total business sales for February – also released yesterday…

…slowdowns without there being a recession. In any event, none of the current negative readings are sufficiently below zero to accord with recessionary readings over the indexes’ short history:  …

Real retail sales continue flat in January; production sector still in recession Retail sales increased nominally by +0.3% in January, while December was revised downward by -0.1%, for a net…