One trend toward a Recession: yoy %change of U3 & U6
This graph shows yoy %change for the U-3 and U-6 rates for unemployment. (link)
They are on a normal trend of a business cycle where they bottom out and then head upwards. When the trend starts to go positive, a recession is imminent. The trend is just now hitting 0% which in the last two business cycles signaled a recession about 3 to 9 months ahead of time.
Yes the YOY change unemployment rate always crosses zero before a recession, but there are almost as many occasions when it crosses zero and no recession follows…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dki
When I factor in the condition of effective demand, the odds rise that a recession would happen. Here is a graph…
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8ds8
Always on a quarterly basis, when the yoy %change in U3 goes positive, it signals a recession. here is the quarterly graph… with effective demand.
https://fred.stlouisfed.org/graph/?g=8dsl
The U3 yoy %change plot is heading upward right now.