…I pointed out that, going back 60 years, every US recession has been associated with a shock to the system. In other words, the normal progression of interest rates, building,…

…its peak in April. By itself, this statistic would be consistent with a recession starting last spring. But the story is completely different as to spending. Nominally that rose 0.5%…

…is absolutely true to say that not every significant increase in corporate bond yields presaged a recession, it is true that all recessions (except for the brief pandemic lockdown) were…

…(2) indicate short recoveries with an ensuing recession (1 recession and 1 expansion with the same number of quarters as the 2009-2012 expansion). Therefore, the graphs are truncated when the…

…of weeks out). I also noted that Reagan with back to back recessions did not see the peak until 30 months past the first recession. Almost 3 full years! He…

…the jobs being created and the wages they are generating. The trend since the 2001/02 recession is that jobs lost in the recession are replaced by jobs producing lessor wages….

Just watch this. It is 1 minute long. Could it be anymore surreal? HOW MANY TIMES DO WE HAVE TO DO THIS? HOW MANY FREAKIN’ TIMES DO WE HAVE TO…

…short shrift and inadequate explanation. It’s easy, though, to find forecasts of return to recession outcomes if the sequester and end of the Bush tax cuts are allowed to take…

…U.S. Vehicle Miles The number of miles driven tends to flatten during a recession, then recover quickly when the recession is over. At least, that’s the way it used to…

…measured as the bottom of a recession to the bottom of the next recession, or the trough to trough measure. In the US, the latest cycle lasted 91 months from…