…trending just a bit upward, but holding quite steady. Since the 1980s, the rate of consumption by labor income tends to bloom upward after a recession, then begin a soft…

…great recession. He has a problem with the timing of the recession which was very mild until Lehman collapsed then very severe. I think he can argue that this was…

…at the time, “during the past such era of [low interest rates in] 1930-1955 several recessions including the very bad 1938 recession occurred without a yield curve inversion, I have…

…recessions, sometimes having started shortly beforehand. On only 8 occasions have negative YoY readings not been associated with recessions. That’s better than a 2:1 rate of correct readings vs. false…

…yield curve is forecasting recession to happen sometime in 2020. 2. The few economic models that don’t rely upon the yield curve suggest a recession *could* happen later this year….

Yes, Virginia, the government shutdown really did cause a mini-recession For the past several months, I have been pounding on the idea that the government shutdown, during which 800,000 jobholders…

…not scream “recession,” but on the other hand it is consistent with the onset of recession by the end of this year. Because inflation is under the Fed’s target, it…

…slowdown turning into something worse. Simply put, no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase, and the lack of any such increase has been the best argument…

by New Deal democrat Housing and the economy, now and in 2022 – recession caution? My long-form review and forecast of the housing market and its potential effect on the…

House prices continue to surge, with affordability near its worst since the Great Recession   The FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes for May and April, respectively, were released…