…withdrawal might lead to a recession in the US economy. The severity of any recession probably depends on a wildcard: how much financial distress is caused with falling housing prices….

I found this story in yesterday’s WSJ rather amusing. The point of the story is summarized in the following table: What conclusions do I draw from this? First, economists often…

…recession. In each graph, quarter 1 is the trough of the recession, counted as the last quarter of negative GDP growth. The first graph illustrates that GDP, the broadest measure…

…in the great recession, but actually occurs throughout. It happens mainly because recessions bring CARC values down while boosting the Std Dev. But — this is not the explanation. To…

…and inflated. The recession of 2001 followed the same unusual path as before the recession. In 2002, the economy had to make an adjustment. Productivity had to rise or effective…

…than before the Great Recession. To be exact, since 2008 the number of such deals has doubled from about 10 per year (in the previous 10 years) to about 20…

…stepping upward its ability to consume from recession to recession. (purple arrow) What does this mean? Is this something we should be concerned about? Does it imply that the next…

…graph #1. We see that there are 2 spikes of inflation that happened during the two recessions that formed during the 1970’s. Did monetary policy cause these recessions as Scott…

…shows that real GDP must reach the effective demand limit before a recession will happen. It may slow down a bit, but a recession will not happen with tapering. And…

…effective demand as described by Keynes will be signalling an eventual recession. To say that a recession won’t happen because there will still be too much spare capacity to reach…