…month I wrote that typically it has taken at least a 20% decline in housing construction to be consistent with an oncoming recession and that we weren’t there yet. As…

…is no one foolproof indicator that always has indicated recession in advance. For example, as I have noted many times, the yield curve never inverted between 1932 and 1957, even…

…not signaled a recession, and even when a recession has been avoided (e.g., 1967 and 1995) GDP growth has typically slowed dramatically (note: graph ends with September data): Last month…

…every single recession, typically by 12 to 18 months. The first two graphs below show that yield curve in blue, and compare it with the YoY% change in stock prices…

…suddenly past 100, a recession has occurred. The two times it has oscillated around that point – in the later 1970s and 2010-14 – there has been no recession, but…

…case did a recession immediately ensue. Gas prices did help bring about a recession when they remained above $3/gallon during most of the rest of 2007, and certainly as they…

…usually, YoY production is decelerating pretty rapidly before a recession actually begins. A close-up of the monthly changes since the depth of the pandemic recession shows that May was weak,…

…slowdown in a year or two, well, would that be worse than a world wide recession induced by central bankers? On the other side of the ledger, the risks to…

…signal of recession, but frequently the recession is imminent. “…. “ In any given expansion, there is usually at least one month where claims are higher YoY. But if that…

…boost from lower gas prices going to allow for a “soft landing,” or a “modified limited rolling recession,” if you will? Or was the boost ending, where we could expect…