Real retail sales continue to suggest recession, decelerating employment gains  – by New Deal democrat The second of the three important datapoints this morning was retail sales for May. This…

…would take several months of a 4.0% or higher unemployment rate to trigger the Sahm recession Rule, one similar unemployment rate-based metric has been triggered, which compares the short term…

…but usually by a significantly longer period of time. In fact, with the exception of the 1970 recession, they have always turned negative YoY shortly before a recession has begun…

…result of intentional policy decisions addressing the pandemic and subsequent recession at the scale of the problem. Policymakers learned from the aftermath of the Great Recession (2008). In which, the…

…period of time. In fact, with the exception of the 1970 recession, they have always turned negative YoY shortly before a recession has begun (again, I’ll spare you the graph)….

…a recession. Indeed, more often than not, once the 0.3% threshold has been crossed, a recession has been close to occurring. But as I wrote last month, and as Sahm…

…2001 recession: And this is from just before the 2001 recession through 2019: On most of the occasions before a recession occurred, real imports turned down one Quarter before domestic…

…always and only occurred shortly before or during recessions. The U3 unemployment rate declined -0.1% to 4.2%, but the “Sahm rule” recession indicator Is still in effect. The U6 underemployment…

…stress indexes should indicate higher stress, and an inverted yield curve will again forecast a recession.  If that doesn’t occur, a recession is not likely. We’ll see. The Bonddad Blog…

…a YoY basis, this series has *declined* by -725,000 jobs, which remains consistent with recession, as it has for months. This is the second time in three months this measure…