Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The fog of war and international relations in Ukraine

Understanding the situation in Ukraine and how it will likely evolve in the future is impossible for me, partly due the inherent complexity and unpredictability of war and international relations, and partly because the main players have such strong incentives to strategically misrepresent their actions and intentions.  Are the Ukrainians really getting killed by Russian […]

The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues

The increasing trend in new jobless claims continues Initial jobless claims declined -3,000 to 229,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose 2,750 to 218,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 ten weeks ago.  Continuing claims rose 3,000 to 1,312,000, or 6,000 above […]

Vaccines?  Focused protection?  Not if you ask the fine libertarians at the Brownstone Institute.

Pre-COVID, who would have thought that a significant part of the libertarian thought collective would go anti-vax?  Not me.  But I stand corrected.  From a recent blog post at the illustrious Brownstone Institute: The people whose directives you are following talk a lot about “pseudoscience,” always accusing those of us who disagree with their directives […]

Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year

Negative May and YoY real retail sales add to the foreboding signals of a recession next year Nominal retail sales for the month of May declined -0.3%, and April was revised down by -0.2% to +0.7%. This reduces April’s number, after inflation to +0.4%, followed by a “real” decline in May of -1.2% after rounding. […]

Pence’s Letter of Explanation Written on January 5th

As taken from “Letters from an American,” June 12, 2022, Prof. Heather Cox Richardson “Yesterday, Politico’s Betsy Woodruff Swan and Kyle Cheney reported on January 5, 2021, then – vice president Pence’s attorney Greg Jacob wrote a three-page memo concluding what the president and his supporters were demanding Pence do the next day would break the 1887 […]

April Trade Deficit Decreases on Lower Imports

RJS: MarketWatch 666 ~~~~~~~~ Summary: April Trade Deficit Decreased by a record 19.1%, Led by Lower Imports of Consumer Goods and Industrial Supplies and Materials ~~~~~~~~ Our trade deficit was 19.1% lower in April, as our exports increased while our imports decreased. The  Commerce Dept report on our international trade in goods and services for […]

Auto and Light Truck Emission Rules are Still Problematic

“New Auto Emissions Rules Have a Loophole You Can Drive a Light-Duty Truck Through” (treehugger.com), Lloyd Alter, December 2021 ~~~~~~~~ President Biden and the U.S. Environmental Protection Agency (EPA) have revised the existing greenhouse gas emissions standards for passenger cars and light-duty trucks. Rolling back in four years the rollbacks the Trump administration implemented to change […]