Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Trade War is Not Over

As you get further down in the latest Krugman piece, you will read: “Everything is at most an announcement about what tariff rates will be for the next 90 days.” A lot of talk and threats and no reality. We are constantly off balance due to Trump’s (as the Pres) threats. The Trade War Isn’t […]

Most Medicaid adults under age 65 are working already . . .

If this was about people taking advantage of Medicaid, Unemployment, or other government programs, there might be a reason to do what Congress is doing. Instead, elected Republican Senators and Representatives are moving in mass to cut programs so as to maintain Trump’s 2017 TCJA tax breaks which was passed under reconciliation. The tax break […]

Housing permits and starts still rangebound, but with units under construction down almost -20%, is the last shoe finally dropping?

 – by New Deal democrat In April total permits (dark blue in the graph below) declined -69,000 on an annualized basis to 1.412 million, while the less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) number declined -50,000 to 922,000. The slightly lagging and much more volatile starts number (gray, narrow) rose 22,000 to 1.361 million annualized: […]

RFK Jr lies about the mumps vaccine

“During an interview with Dr. Phil in late April, HHS Secretary Robert F. Kennedy Jr. made the bold claim that “the mumps part” of the measles, mumps, and rubella (MMR) vaccine “has never worked.”” Do I even have to tell you he’s full of it? Of course he is. If you gave the man an […]

Industrial and manufacturing production suggest front-running production has peaked

– by New Deal democrat The final datapoint for today is industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  Last month I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail sales numbers, were about front-running T—-p’s tariffs. Which means that like retail sales, production might have been […]

Shrinking our way to excellence on autism

Back in the 1960s, it was believed that autism was caused by “refrigerator moms,” moms who were cold and aloof and thus drove their otherwise normal children into a lifetime of autism. Nobody believes the refrigerator mom environment anymore. Research has shown that autism has a heritability of 60-80%. So while there may be environmental […]

Department of Justice Indicting a Judge

Attorney Joyce Vance discusses what is interesting about this piece other than being correct. The Department of Justice is attempting to indict a judge. Judge Dugan “is entitled to judicial immunity for her official acts. The case cited which protects a judge is Trump v. United States, the case where the Supreme Court gave Trump immunity […]

Car Build in the US

This is the latest article discussing US automotive manufacturing I could find right now. If I could find my old charts I would use to plan components, I could offer more up-to-date information. However, the US automotive industry builds millions of cars each year and accounted for 2.8% of all nonfarm jobs in the US […]

Real retail sales turn down in April, but continue to reflect consumers’ front-running of tariffs

 – by New Deal democrat Next up in today’s slew of data is retail sales. This is one of the most important indicators I look at, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. In April, nominally retail sales […]

Does Trump Get To Decide Who Is An American?

– by Joyce Vance @ Civil Discourse The stakes are high, even though the Supreme Court won’t be deciding, at least not yet, whether Trump’s order to end birthright citizenship is constitutional. Tomorrow (written on May 14), the Supreme Court will hear oral argument in the Birthright Citizenship Case, Trump v. Casa, Inc. We’re here because Donald […]