Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

“Recession watch” for economically weighted ISM indexes, and residential construction spending, continues

 – by New Deal democrat Since Friday featured the very salient jobs report – and its immediate fallout – I delayed reporting on two other important reports that typically start the month – the ISM manufacturing index, and construction spending – until today. As it turns out, they only amplify the message from the employment report […]

Make China Great Again

Trump slapped a 50% tariff on Brazilian coffee. Guess that will show them! “China has approved 183 new Brazilian coffee companies to export products to the Chinese market, according to a social media post of the Chinese embassy in Brazil on Saturday. “The measure, a boon to local exporters after the United States government’s announcement […]

Where are all the Democratic donations?

Ever since November 2024, when Donald Trump took over all three branches of the federal government, there has been no shortage of navel-gazing pieces posing as political analysis of why Democrats are unable to get their voters to the polls. One theme has been that the party is been chasing dollars, and to be successful, […]

Unemployment Rises in July

Unemployment increases in July. Job growth is slowing and numbers for the two preceding months were lowered to 19,000 in May, down from 144,000 and 14,000 in June, down from 147,000. Were these unusual? According the BLS, they were somewhat larger than experienced in the past, The size of these revisions were “larger than normal,” […]

Trump Effects Showing Up in the Economy

Worthwhile read if you have five minutes. Trump Effect Starts to Show Up in Economy (The Wall Street Journal) Kareem Talking Trump . . . SUMMARY: A chaotic rollout of tariffs is starting to filter through to price tags on store shelves. An immigration crackdown is beginning to weigh on jobs growth, measured by federal surveys. […]

New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators July 28 – August 1

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. In the middle of writing the post yesterday afternoon, the news broke that T—-p had fired Erika McEntarfer, the Commissioner of the BLS, for the crime of publishing jobs data that he did not like. For the moment, she has been replaced by her […]

Lonnie Griffith Bunch III, the secretary of the Smithsonian Institution

This popped up in my emails today. So why would Lonnie Griffith Bunch III be so special as to have been called out? The Smithsonian said today (that being August 2), it would restore the information about Trump’s two impeachments to an exhibit about impeachment, in the National Museum of American History, a division of the Smithsonian. Here’s […]

Tariffs: Money for nothing?

The dollars are rolling in to the federal government coffers from tariffs. And Trump is claiming victory. “Indeed, Trump has routinely cited the tariff revenue as evidence that his trade approach, which has sowed uncertainty and begun to increase prices for consumers, is a win for the United States. Members of his administration have argued […]

Wasting $Billions While Chain Sawing the Government for Efficiency

Taking from “Tracking federal expenditures in real time.” Brookings we are able to see Federal Gov. expenditures over time. In this case, I chose years. The original graph is on the left and was presented by Common Dreams, “DOGE Wasted Tens of Billions.” It is a great graph depiting the differences in administrations. The article […]

Weak and Changing Jobs Report

Simple report. Not feeling well enough to deep dive this topic. I tend to agree with Paul Krugman and others (for that matter). Much of this fluctuation (jobs, etc.) is due to Trump’s creation of a nervous economy. There is no stability. The slightest change impacts the economy. The facts keep changing from time to […]