Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Destabilizing the US Job Market

Cuts to Medicaid will impact the people receiving healthcare from Medicaid. Such cutbacks will result in layoffs in Long-Term Services & Supports (LTSS). Medicaid is the “single largest payer” for Long Term Services & Supports (LTSS). It accounts for nearly half of total LTSS spending in the US. It includes care provided in a nursing home or […]

The bottom line in Q2 GDP; front-running, payback, and contrasting long leading indicators

 – by New Deal democrat Today’s GDP report for Q2 was pretty much as we expected, i.e., payback from the front-running of import tariffs in Q1. But as usual, my main focus is on the two long leading components. The headline was a 3.0% annualized increase in real GDP, rebounding from the -0.5% decrease in Q1 […]

Scott Bessent says the quiet part out loud

Speaking at a Breitbart event, Treasury Secretary Scott Bessent crowed about the new “Trump Accounts” in which the the parents or employer can contribute up to $5000/year. The funds are to be structured like IRAs and must be invested in portfolios tied to U.S. stock indexes. Quoth Bessent: “In a way, it is a backdoor […]

It Does Not Look Like Jerome Powell is Responding to the Deal Offered Up

The Federal Reserve left interest rates unchanged on Wednesday, keeping its benchmark range at 4.25% to 4.5%. In his remarks, Fed Chair Jerome Powell explained the committee’s view that “the economy is in a solid position.” However, growth has moderated, he said, and consumer spending has slowed in the first half of the year. What’s […]

Something Interesting? Clerking, How Does It happen

In selecting Supreme Court clerks, much has changed over the past 25 years—but one thing has not. The U.S. Supreme Court currently stands in recess, but that doesn’t mean nothing’s happening at One First Street. Although the justices generally aren’t in the building, as they typically travel or teach over the summer, July is an […]

The art of the fake deal

Trump has trumpeted his EU fossil fuel deal to sell $250bn worth of US oil, natural gas and nuclear technologies for each of the next three years. Like all things Trump, it’s all bluster. “Analysts were puzzled by a target that would involve decisions by shareholder-owned companies in a continent also trying to decarbonise its […]

Yesterday’s JOLTS report still = soft landing

 – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS survey for June continued to be consistent with a “soft landing” scenario. This is good news, particularly on a relative basis, since the actions of the new Administration, especially on trade, have exacerbated the fear that this might transform into a “hard” landing, a/k/a a recession. As a quick […]

Been there, done that

One of the icons of right-wing fairytale economics is the Laffer Curve. It purported to show that if taxes were raised too high, the tax income would fall. Casual inspection revealed that there were no labels on the ordinate or abscissa, so it was impossible to say at what level of taxation “too high” occurred. […]

Early Filings suggest 2026 ACA Premiums will Be Spiking

Looks like the revenge of the healthcare insurance corporate powers coming next year. If you think Herr Tr__p will be stepping in to control the rising healthcare insurance prices, I tend to think not. Indeed, Joe Biden will take the fall on this as Tr__mp does not have a solution other than to pass blame. […]