– by New Deal democrat Because tomorrow is the Federal Juneteenth Holiday, initial and continuing claims were released today. They continue to show a slowly weakening, but not (yet) recessionary, economy. Initial claims declined -5,000 to 245,000 for the week, while the four week moving average rose another 4,750 to 245,500. This four week average is […]
– by New Deal democrat Today’s second report was for industrial production, including its important manufacturing component. The data for May was mixed, as total production (blue) declined -0.2%, while manufacturing production (red) increased 0.1% In March I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail […]
– by New Deal democrat We can safely say that the front-running of tariffs is over. As usual, real retail sales is one of my favorite indicators, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. And this morning’s report for […]
Trump is tossing a hissy because “The FED” has decided to delay any decreases of the FED Rate. Which in my limited opinion of what is going on with a loose cannon government directed by a rogue president is a wise decision. Trump and politicians are not the ones who will bear the brunt of […]
– by New Deal democrat Since a couple of years ago, I temporarily suspended my updating of the long leading indicators. That is because their negative slant in 2022 was completely overcome by the hurricane force tailwind of the unspooling supply chain kinks. By that time the Fed had already raised rates more steeply than at […]
As taken from Health Affairs. This report magnifies the impact of Trump and the Republican piece of garbage healthcare bill. A bill which targets those who have low income, are older, and make more than the 400-percent-of-the-federal-poverty-level subsidy cliff. The subsidy increase about 500% FPL was to help more people, families, and older people qualify […]
I did this a couple of years ago. What you are looking at is the current Student Loan Debt carried by former students. Also included is the ages of each group of students. I am using 2025 Quarter 1 numbers owed for the 50- to 61-year-old former students and also the 62 and older students. […]
Weekly Indicators for June 9 – 13 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there were no significant changes in the indicators, there is evidence of a downturn in consumer spending compared with the tariff front-running of several months ago, as well as a continued decline […]
Lower-income person paying 2% of their income on their premium for healthcare insurance pre-covid, now pay nothing. Higher income people currently pay no more than 8.5% of their income on their premium. Pre-covid they were originally ineligible for financial assistance. All of this will change with the passage of Trump’s bill. Enhanced subsidies for Affordable […]
“Distributional Effects of H.R. 1, the One Big Beautiful Bill Act” CBO and the staff of the Joint Committee on Taxation (JCT) analysis of the budgetary and distributional effects of H.R. 1 or the “One Beautiful Piece of ? as passed on May 22, 2025. CBO estimates, on average, household resources would increase over the […]