– by New Deal democrat My question over the past year had been whether “decleration” into a “soft landing”would turn into “deterioration” towards a recession. That has now been overtaken by events in the form of T—-p‘s tariffs and trade wars. So my focus now is looking for hard data, rather than reports of sentiment, […]
My brother Mike is a retired mechanical engineer. He emailed me this morning and reminded me of a New Yorker article we had both read years ago and pointed me to a fascinating youtube video that retells the story. In a nutshell, the Citicorp building in Manhattan was a triumph of architectural innovation in its […]
There are changes coming to the Medicare market place and Medicare Advantage. Healthcare Insurance companies are leaving the Medicare Advantage market. “Market exits by Humana, Aetna, and UnitedHealthcare will collectively affect nearly 70% of those 1.8 million individuals.” The remainder of the 1.8 million will be looking at new plans with the same insurance provider. […]
– by New Deal democrat [Note: I’ll report separately on construction spending, also released this morning] Although manufacturing is of diminishing importance to the economy, (it was in deep contraction both in 2015-16 and again in 2022 without any recession), the ISM manufacturing index remains an important indicator with a 75+ year history of accurately describing […]
Can Trump cut Government spending even more? Yes, he probably could. It would be detrimental to the United States citizens. It appears we concerns about spending exceeding tax receipts in 2025 and creating deficits. There is a solution to all of this. Passed under Reconciliation, Trumps Tax Cuts and Jobs Act (TCJA) was to pay for […]
– by New Deal democrat I suspect we will look back on this morning’s report on jobless claims as the first concrete sign of impending recession. Initial claims rose 18,000 to 241,000, the highest since February 22. The four week moving average rose 5,500 to 226,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims rose 83,000 […]
Some detail on Trump’s Car Tariffs. Still not a lot of detail. This is what was proposed. Even with a cut back in the tariff, prices will increase. The threat may and probably will make a great excuse for a price increase also. Oh, we brought this one in early so as to avoid the […]
– by New Deal democrat Aside from the long leading indicators I discussed in that post, GDP is a look in the rear view mirror, because it includes January and February. Personal income and spending for March, although it is part of that GDP report, is therefore more current. Like the housing data we got earlier […]
– by New Deal democrat The big headline takeaway in today’s advance report on Q1 GDP, besides the -0.3% number, was that imports deducted about -5.0% on an annualized basis, overcoming a fairly strong 3.0% contribution in real terms from consumer spending. Here’s the breakout graph from the BEA: The graph tells the story; both real […]
Steve Greenhouse, “Trump’s second term will be the worst presidential term ever,” as featured by The Guardian. Going on 4 months or 120 days if one is counting days. As a nation, we are experiencing the worst episode within this nation ever imagined. No war, outbreak, recession, or even the Great Depression has threatened us […]