Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What Trump Wants From Tariffs … and What the U.S. Might Get Instead

Commentary from April which still has some relevance as the Tariffs still exist. Trump did decrease them but we will still suffer issues of higher pricing. The administration hopes to bring back manufacturing and reduce trade deficits. But renegotiating trade may damage global trust in the U.S. What Trump Wants From Tariffs … and What […]

Train Drain

I know of Phillip Longman more so from his authoring a couple books. One called “The Best Care Anywhere” about the Veterans Administration. This is an article about deregulation and what happens when private equity takes over. It is a good read. Deregulation and private equity have gutted the U.S. freight rail system—and with it, […]

Rural Hospitals Financial Losses, Closures, and Revenue

Part One of this report is an introduction to Losses, Revenue, and Costs incurred by Rural Hospitals. I have broken the report up so as to allow a reader some time to absorb the information on Rural Hospitals. It is a bit lengthy although it does have numerous graphs and charts. The report itself was […]

Moody’s is bearish on America

While neither the stock market nor bond credit rating business are the economy, changes in the stock market and bond credit ratings are often harbingers. “Moody’s announced Friday evening it was lowering the US score to Aa1 from Aaa. A gauge of the greenback fell 0.6%, US stock futures slid and Treasuries’ yield curve steepened […]

Housing permits and starts still rangebound, but with units under construction down almost -20%, is the last shoe finally dropping?

 – by New Deal democrat In April total permits (dark blue in the graph below) declined -69,000 on an annualized basis to 1.412 million, while the less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) number declined -50,000 to 922,000. The slightly lagging and much more volatile starts number (gray, narrow) rose 22,000 to 1.361 million annualized: […]

Industrial and manufacturing production suggest front-running production has peaked

– by New Deal democrat The final datapoint for today is industrial production, including its important manufacturing component.  Last month I wrote that “I suspect the big increases in February and March in manufacturing, like this morning’s retail sales numbers, were about front-running T—-p’s tariffs. Which means that like retail sales, production might have been […]

Car Build in the US

This is the latest article discussing US automotive manufacturing I could find right now. If I could find my old charts I would use to plan components, I could offer more up-to-date information. However, the US automotive industry builds millions of cars each year and accounted for 2.8% of all nonfarm jobs in the US […]

Real retail sales turn down in April, but continue to reflect consumers’ front-running of tariffs

 – by New Deal democrat Next up in today’s slew of data is retail sales. This is one of the most important indicators I look at, because it tells us so much about consumers, and since consumption leads employment, it gives us information about the trend in that as well. In April, nominally retail sales […]

Jobless Claims May 15 2025

Jobless claims: more of the same  – by New Deal democrat After a long data drought, there are many releases today. I’ll start with jobless claims. Initial claims were unchanged at 229,000, while the four week moving average rose 2,250 to 230,500. With the typical one week delay, continuing claims rose 9,000 to 1.881 million: […]