The #1 likely reason I suspect the economy has not gone into recession yet – by New Deal democrat I’ve been reading increasing talk about the fabled “soft landing,” or alternatively, “rolling recession.” For example, over the weekend Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab told “Wall Street Week” that housing is already in a recession, but […]
Weekly Indicators for February 6 – 10 at Seeking Alpha I neglected to post the link to this yesterday, so let me do it today. My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. We continue to see a slow drip, drip, drip of ever so slightly more negative coincident data, without it crossing over into […]
In the Private Sector? The Protecting the Right to Organize Act is a historic proposal restoring fairness to the economy by strengthening the federal laws protecting workers’ right to unionize and bargain for higher wages and better benefits. In the Public Sector? There is no federal law protecting the freedom of state and local public […]
More Economic and Government topics the time. Much of it due to the pandemic caused economic issue. It is interesting as to how the news varies from week to week and what becomes important. I did add reports on Ukraine’s economy for 2022. You will see percentages from ~31% to ~38% cited depending on who […]
Another take on wages and salaries outpacing inflation. Not so says Robert Shapiro. Inflation Reality Check: Don’t Blame Wages and Salaries for High Prices, Washington Monthly, Robert J. Shapiro Yes, economics can be complicated, and economic reporters work under tight deadlines. There is no excuse for the media meme blaming rising wages for much of […]
Updating some important coincident indicators – by New Deal democrat We returned to no more significant monthly data today. So here are some important coincident indicators I’ve been particularly following. Redbook consumer purchases only increased 4.3% YoY last week, the lowest number in almost 2 years. The 4 week average also declined to 4.7%, also […]
As Holiday seasonality disappears, initial jobless claims turn higher YoY – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 13,000 last week to 196,000. The four-week moving average declined -7,500 to 189,250. Continuing claims increased 38,000 to 1,688,000. Below I show all three since initial claims first fell below 300,000 in late October 2021: Because […]
From the New York Times, Ezra Klein’s opinion piece, The Story Construction Tells About America’s Economy Is Disturbing Here’s something odd: We’re getting worse at construction. Think of the technology we have today that we didn’t in the 1970s. The new generations of power tools and computer modeling and teleconferencing and advanced machinery and prefab materials […]
This Is What Happens When Progressives Look the Other Way – Peter Dorman @Econospeak Recent events in Florida—the “Stop WOKE” Act, the rejection of AP African American Studies, the hostile takeover of New College—and the publication of an excellent op-ed about Diversity, Equity and Inclusion (DEI) in the Chronicle of Higher Education have me returning to a […]
Credit conditions in Q4 were recessionary – by New Deal democrat While we are still in our lull concerning monthly data, on Monday there was a significant update of one long leading indicator that is only reported Quarterly: the Senior Loan Officer Survey. This survey has an excellent history of over 30 years telling us […]