April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings Late last year, I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs or perhaps other games as well such as 케이카지노. Employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves […]
Manufacturing and construction continue to be positive for the months ahead Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. Manufacturing and production equipment such as special tooling, patterns, molds, […]
Student Loan Debt Forgiveness for half a million students from Corinthian Colleges (cnbc.com) An approximate 560,000 Corinthian College Inc. former students will have their loan balances forgiven as announced by U.S. Secretary of Education Miguel Cardona. “As of today, every student deceived, defrauded, and driven into debt by Corinthian Colleges can rest assured that the […]
House prices: signs and portents of an approaching peak? House price increases were still going strong through March, as reported this morning in both the Case Shiller and FHFA house price indexes. The Case Shiller national index rose 2.1% for the month and 20.5% YoY, the biggest YoY% gain ever, while the FHFA purchase-only index […]
RJS: MarketWatch 666 Summary: 1st quarter GDP revision; April’s personal income and outlays, durable goods, and new home sales 1st Quarter GDP Revised to Show Our Economy Shrunk at a 1.5% Rate The Second Estimate of our 1st Quarter GDP from the Bureau of Economic Analysis indicated that our real output of goods and services shrunk at […]
RJS: Focus on Fracking Summary: natural gas prices hit 13½ year high after a six-fold increase in less than 2 years; US oil exports at a 26 month high even with SPR at a 34½ year low & US oil supplies at a 17 year low; total oil + products inventories at a new 13½ […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for May 23 – 27 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Few changes to the headlines, but lots of churning underneath. People seem to have jumped the gun on recession, thinking one is either here or imminent. It’s not here, and it isn’t imminent. […]
Real income and – especially – spending increase in April, but households are getting much more overextended by NewDealdemocrat In April nominal personal income rose 0.4%, and spending rose 0.9%. March’s spending was revised up from 1.1% to 1.4%. In more good news, the personal consumption deflator, i.e., the relevant measure of inflation, rose only 0.2%, […]
Real money supply declines sharply; another leading indicator for recession next year Real M1 declined -0.8% in April, and real M2 declined by -0.7%, following March declines of -1.0% for each: These have been the sharpest monthly declines since 2005: Real money supply is a long leading indicator, as shown in the below graph of […]
Initial and continuing jobless claims continue moderating trend Initial jobless claims declined 8,000 to 210,000 last week, continuing above the recent 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. Meanwhile, the 4-week average rose by another 7,250 to 206,750, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set seven weeks ago. Continuing claims also rose from […]