Prices soar, sales drop; oh by the way, sales lead prices New home sales declined -8.6% in March, which isn’t as sharp as it seems since declines of this magnitude happen 2-3x/year. The series is also heavily revised, so no new month’s number should be given too much weight. On the other hand, new home […]
Lessons for the present from the Postwar Boom One of the things I harp on from time to time is that from 1932 to 1956 there was never a yield curve inversion, and yet recessions certainly did happen! Too many modern models get hung up on Fed intervention. But what happens when the Fed doesn’t […]
Channeling Great Grandfather Mayer May Mayer May was born in Bavaria in 1848 and immigrated to the United States in 1869 when he was 21 years old. Bavaria had universal military conscription at age 21. I was born in 1948 and immigrated to Canada in 1967 to resist the draft. Over the years, I have […]
This is mostly a C&P with editing involved. Taken from Altarum Health Sector Economic Indicators, and “Insights from Monthly National Health Spending Data through December 2021.” I have added the link Altarum to return to the original article. Without the additional government spending covering Covid costs and a recession during 2020 -2021, overall healthcare spending […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for April 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While I was writing about mortgage rates during the week, the yield curve did some re-tightening, enough to make a difference in the long term forecast. As usual, clicking over and reading should […]
RJS, Focus on Fracking Summary: Strategic Petroleum Reserve at a 20 year low, US oil supplies at a 14 year low after record jump in exports; distillates supplies at a 14 year low, total oil + products inventories at an 8 year low; a total oil + products exports at a record high The Latest US Oil Supply and Disposition Data from the EIA […]
Mortgage rates continue to rise; once the backlog in construction is cleared, this will likely kill housing No important economic news today (April 22), but an important negative trend in interest rates is continuing. Mortgage rates are now at 12 year highs. The weekly data from Freddy Mac’s weekly survey shows rates increased to 5.11% […]
Jobless claims: more 50+ year lows Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 to 184,000, another 50+ year low. The 4 week average rose from 4,500 to 177,250, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 set two weeks ago. Continuing claims declined -58,000 this week to 1,417,000, a new 50 year low (but still well above their […]
— “One for you, and one for me,” works well enough for divvying up when there are only two. When there are more than two and the divvier gets one for everyone else’s one, that’s capitalism; one of the greatest cons of all times. Somehow, 1% convinced the other 99% to believe in something that […]
Housing starts show continued strength in March, while single family permits indicate softness ahead The continued strength in total housing permits and starts shown in this morning’s report for March was surprising; but the series with the most signal and least noise, single family permits, betrayed weakness. While typically permits, especially single family permits, lead […]