Weekly Indicators for July 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The 10-2 year Treasury yield inverted again, with very little fanfare. And several other leading indicators deteriorated a little further as well. But as the jobs report showed, the nowcast is still positive. As usual, clicking over […]
(Dan here…lifted from comments) Barkley Rosser writes: There are two things Trump did that added to inflation that Biden has somehow not undone yet. One of them is reversing the Trump tariffs, which he clearly fears doing because of opposition by Organized Labor and many white working-class voters in the crucial Rust Belt states. Some […]
June jobs report: strong headline numbers, betraying numerous signs of rougher times Consumption leads employment. That’s true at bottoms, and it’s true at peaks as well. Since February, when consumption growth started to flag, I have been waiting for it to show up decisively in jobs numbers. In March through May, average growth decelerated from […]
White Rabbit I have finished reading to my two younger grandsons the two Alice books by Lewis Carroll. I read the edition with commentary by the late mathematician, Martin Gardner, who used to write for Scientific American. I also just listened to Jefferson Airplane’s “White Rabbit,” which is pretty bloody sharp, but which draws on […]
Jobless claims continue to drift higher, are no longer a positive; but no recession signaled Initial jobless claims rose 4,000 to 235,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year low of 166,000 set in March. The 4 week average also rose by 750 to 232,500, compared with the all-time low of 170,500 three months ago. Continuing […]
May JOLTS report: a significant deceleration in the underlying jobs market has likely begun Late last year I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs, where employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs. Because of the pandemic, several […]
It began the day of the leaking of the draft, maybe even in anticipation thereof. Legal scholars, bright law students, and informed journalists began the shredding process. In the days since and for far into the future they have and will point out the many fallacies in logic; the disregard for unintended consequences; the disregard […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for June 27 – July 1 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There was yet more deterioration this week, focused on the long and short leading indicators. But consumer spending still seems to be holding up. As usual, clicking over and reading should bring […]
“Manufacturing and construction start out the second half of 2022 with more bad news“ – by New Deal democrat Let’s take a look at the new month’s first data, on manufacturing and construction. The ISM manufacturing index, and especially its new orders subindex, is an important short leading indicator for the production sector. In June, […]
(Dan here…follow the link to the comment section on Kevin Quinn’s somewhat cryptic post to learn more on economics) Muth and Lucas: Call your offices! On his Marginal Revolution blog, Tyler Cowen describes the recent “purge” in the trucking industry. The pandemic shift in demand towards goods, as opposed to services, produced a big increase […]