JOLTS report: record low layoffs, near record high quits and job openings
April JOLTS report: record low layoffs, still near record high quits and job openings
Late last year, I introduced the idea that the jobs market was similar to a game of musical chairs or perhaps other games as well such as 케이카지노. Employers added or took away chairs, and employees tried to best allocate themselves among the chairs. Because of the pandemic, there have been several million fewer players trying to sit in those chairs, leaving many empty. Additionally, there is 10% greater demand for goods and services in total in the past year than there was before the 2021 stimulus payments. As a result, wages have continued to increase sharply. And employers attempt to attract potential employees to sit in the continuing big number of empty chairs.
I’ve further posited that the game of musical chairs will only slow down once some employers throw in the towel, and the number of job openings significantly declines.
In April, as yesterday’s Census Bureau JOLTS report shows, the game of musical job chairs in the jobs market has actually intensified to all-time levels. Specifically, both job openings and quits made all-time highs. Total separations during their entire 20- year history were only higher in March and April 2020.
Layoffs and discharges (violet, right scale in the graph below) declined -170,000 to 1.246million, a new all-time low. Total separations (blue) declined -215,000 to 6.033 million (graph starts in June 2020 for reasons of scale):
For all intents and purposes, nobody is getting laid off.
Meanwhile, job openings (blue in the graph below) declined -455,000 to 11.4 million vs. their all-time high of 11.855 million one month ago. Voluntary quits (the “great resignation,” gold, right scale) declined -25,000 to 4.424 million. Actual hires (red) declined -59,000 to 6.586 million, vs. February’s all-time high of 6.832 million:
Importantly, there has been a sharp *deceleration* in the rate of YoY growth of both quits (to 10.2%) and job openings (to 23.0%). But those rates still constitute red hot growth vs. virtually any other time in the past 20 years:
In particular, in the past 6 months, vs. 23.0%, openings have grown at a 5.6% annualized rate, and in the past 3 months, at a 4.2% annualized rate. Openings could have peaked in March, or may continue to slowly rise for another 3 or 6 months.
In summary, the competition by employers to attract employees is still near a record. Employers aren’t laying anybody off, and the trend of workers quitting for better-paying jobs also continues at a near record pace. As a result, I expect wages to continue to increase sharply. Only when the trend in job openings rolls over, based on a 3 month average, do I expect to see a change in the underlying job market.
Pax Americanis
as the mood in this country shifts from globalization to isolation we should support as much globalization as we can before the global economic expansion ends.
we need to prompt our legislators to promote immigration from NATO countries to fill our 11 million open employment slots as quickly as possible with Estonian, polish and other NATOians whom we trust. Such immigration could relieve the pressure of Ukrainian refuge influx into NATO nations. Save lives!
Rural America has always had problems, but here in town there are places advertising that never had to before. Restaurants and fast foods are both running with noticeably less staff than before. Some have “bear with us” signs up.
And we still have the problem of workforce housing, and the younger generation going off to school and not coming back, and …
workforce housing, and th
“
You bet! Congress needs to fund a commission that will study just where all the hidden taxes on home construction end up, a commission that will promote less taxation on home construction but more taxation of existing housing so that those who own a house can subsidize those who do not own a house, more real property taxation, but less tax on corporations who build, less on payroll tax, less on capital gains tax.
At present, 44% of new home cost goes to taxation and regulation, but the mortgage industry is being subsidized for the benefit of folks who have already moved into your neighborhood.
Inequality should not be
grandfathered
in
!