Scenes from the leading sectors of the November jobs report: why I sounded a note of caution – by New Deal democrat I seem to have been something of a negative outlier with respect to last Friday’s jobs report. Not because I was downbeat – although I said there were “warning signs of weakness,” but […]
Throughout history, there have been times when some human minds shone brilliant lighting the way forward for us all. For much of time, their light could be said to be enough. Never omniscient, but enough. At these times, these big minds saw far enough ahead to lead us forward. Along the way, our world has […]
Reader Dan – On Water – Angry Bear According to a University of Arizona researcher, “society is losing $2.4 billion per year because the Colorado River’s water” no longer flows all the way to the Gulf of California. ~~~~~~~~ And that problem, still exists today as states argue about Colorado River water rights and keep […]
Weekly Indicators for December 4 – 8 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The coincident data keeps getting better and better, while interest rates remain very negative. The question, as it has been for months, is whether those interest rates finally case the short leading […]
This makes sense unless you want to hang around the airport for a while to catch another flight to Cleveland or Toledo. If you are observant, there is another route into Canada. All that is missing is an express to Chicago. Amtrak proposal would link Detroit, DTW, Toledo, Cleveland | Crain’s Detroit Business, crainsdetroit.com, Anna […]
November jobs report: signs of considerable strength, but warning signs of considerable weakness as well – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote that “In tomorrow’s jobs report, my focus will be on whether the data is most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration has been continuing;” and more […]
Initial claims continue to forecast expansion; further slight deceleration in employment, unemployment, and wages most likely tomorrow – by New Deal democrat This morning we had our last look at initial jobless claims before tomorrow’s November jobs report. On a weekly basis, claims rose 1,000 to 221,000. The four week average rose 500 to 220,750. […]
What is interesting about NDd’s latest is his identifying manufacturing playing “a much smaller role in the total US economy now than it used to in the decades after WW2.” He identifies another factor occurring before the start of a recession. It has become increasingly necessary for spending on services to falter as well. Real […]
October JOLTS report: yet one more month in the ongoing decelerating trend – by New Deal democrat All of the major metrics in this month’s JOLTS report for October continued to show deceleration. Here are openings (blue), hires (red), and quits (gold), all normed to 100 just before the pandemic: As you can see, at […]
On a YoY basis manufacturing is the star of the show. But note from the historical graph that residential construction previously has turned down first, with manufacturing and other non-residential construction lagging (likely because of long lead times and the extended duration of completing projects). A big increase holds up construction spending in October; and […]