This was posted at 8:03 AM at the Bonddad Blog Thursday. I see other venues having similar reports up also. I am sometimes late in posting NDd’s economic commentaries. Ex-housing, PCE inflation, like CPI inflation, is under the Fed’s 2% target – by New Deal democrat Note: I may not be around for the ISM […]
Despite a few soft spots, consumer income and spending continued to power ahead in October – by New Deal democrat The monthly personal income and spending report is along with the jobs report, one of the two most important coincident metrics for the entire economy, because it is a fairly comprehensive look at the consumer […]
Here we are agin, trying to make it easier to trade derivatives. Never mind the lessons we thought we learned when Goldman Sachs called on AIG to ante up. There were little in reserve for the swaps and AIG was ready to collapse. Congress and the Fed (or reverse) saved them and the economy. The […]
Despite the continued elevation of continued claims, initial claims signal continued expansion – by New Deal democrat I’ll comment on personal income and spending later this morning, but let’s start out with our weekly update on jobless claims. Initial claims rose 7,000 to 218,000, while the 4 week average declined -500 to 220,000. With a […]
Forecasting a further upturn in the unemployment rate: what works? – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I read a post over at Seeking Alpha in which the author confidently predicted a recession in Q1 next year, based exclusively on the NAHB builder sentiment index. Here’s his accompanying graph, comparing builder sentiment with the unemployment rate […]
AB: IEA will not allow me to change any wording. Anything in italics or leads with an AB in front is my wording. I believe the following (charts and brief summation) to be a good explanation of where the US stands at far as changes in energy and usage. A little background concerning our home. […]
Driven by frozen inventory, repeat home prices continue to increase, but downward pressure on shelter inflation remains – by New Deal democrat Our last piece of important housing information for the month was released this morning; namely repeat home sale prices as measured by the FHFA and Case Shiller. The former increased by 0.6%, and […]
Buy or rent Housing in 2023? Cost of buying has surpassed the cost of renting in 2023. Blame high house prices and soaring mortgage rates. Since 2020 nominal house prices have climbed by roughly 40%. In the same period the average 30-year fixed-rate mortgage rose from 3.1% to 7.3%, lifting the mortgage repayments on a […]
I have followed Steve Hutkins and retired Postmaster Mark Jamison for years now. Both Mark and I have had conversations both on and off Angry Bear. It appears we are nearing the end of the reconstruct of the USPS. Whether it works as well shy 50,000 employees with the expectation civilians on their own can […]
Two year low in new home prices and turndown in sales show renewed pressure caused by increased mortgage rates – by New Deal democrat Once again, this morning’s report on new single family home sales shows that the compete bifurcation of the new vs. existing home markets continues. Unlike existing homeowners, many of whom are shackled […]