– by New Deal democrat As we move further into the calendar year, we are getting more clarity on what has been happening with jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at these because historically they have been a good short leading indicator for the unemployment rate and more broadly for the economy as a whole. […]
Started at the end rather than the beginning . . . Blocking Flu shots does not make much sense as Flu Shots are nothing new. The big issue is whether they chose the right vaccine for what will happen each year. “The Journal notes Moderna was one of nine companies to have received a surprise […]
– by New Deal democrat In a landmark paper almost 20 years ago, UCLA Prof. Edward Leamer wrote that “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” In that paper he concluded: In the years before recessions . . . consumers contribute a total of 65% of the leading weakness. In contrast, business spending contributes only 10%…. The temporal […]
– by New Deal democrat In the past month, all of the various home price indexes have confirmed abating inflation in the shelter sector. This morning the FHFA and Case Shiller house price indexes were updated through December. Last week we got price information for new houses, and earlier in the month for existing homes. In this […]
The State of the Union in Numbers. A Quick and Short Review In 2025, the economy expanded as GDP increased, inflation decreased slightly, and the size of imports and exports shifted. These and other measures provide a snapshot of economic activity, prices, and the labor market heading into 2026. How was the economy doing? In 2025, […]
– by New Deal democrat Last week’s Q4 GDP release, as usual, updated two long leading indicators: proprietors’ income (a placeholder for corporate profits, which won’t be reported until next month at the earliest), and private residential fixed investment, a proxy for housing. They were of particular interest this time because, while the normalized yield […]
There is quite a lot occurring with our fearless leader in charge who believes he can make decisions regardless of the results of his decision with regard to the Constitution. Congress can impose Tariffs. The president can not. “The Context You Need to Understand the Supreme Court’s Tariffs Decision,” Civil Discourse, Joyce Vance Thanks for […]
Like most boomers, I’m retired. My retirement is funded by (a) a 403b defined contribution plan, (b) Social Security and (c) personal savings. I waited until age 70 for SS benefits, to max those out. Not everyone is so fortunate. “How’s this for a somber retirement forecast: The typical American worker has less than $1,000 […]
Briefly; Data pulled from HealthAffairs. I was curious as to how much healthcare costs have grown in the United States. As the detail from the article shows we have been experiencing costs increasing at 7+ percent the last two years. This is up from 4 and 5% in preceding years. I have not checked it, […]
– by New Deal democrat Personal income and spending are among the most important monthly indicators of all, because they give us a detailed look at consumption by the broad range of American households. And since consumption leads employment, they also give us an idea of what is likely to happen with regard to jobs in […]