Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

The Economy and “A Trump Thanksgiving”

As suggested by New Deal democrat, the nation is experiencing an expansion of the economy which seems less likely to end in a recession. “There has been some commentary that continuing claims mean a recession is imminent or may even be underway. I am discounting that because initial claims have always signaled first, and also […]

Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions

Initial jobless claims confirm benign employment conditions  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -14,000 to 209,000 last week, and the four week moving average declined -750 to 220,000. With the usual one week lag, continuing claims declined -22,000 to 1.840 million: On a YoY basis, both weekly claims and their four week average […]

Existing homeowners with 3% mortgages remain frozen in place, as sales fall to a new 28 year low

Existing homeowners with 3% mortgages remain frozen in place, as sales fall to a new 28 year low  – by New Deal democrat October marked yet another month in the fully bifurcated housing market, in which most existing homeowners are frozen in place by their 3% mortgages, and buyers have turned to new homes (and […]

AI Algorithm allegedly leads to Medicare Advantage Denial of Claims

Industry has been talking about AI (Artificial Intelligence) for a while now. And of course, industry has been looking to reduce the amount of labor input with AI. Having used computerized systems such as MRPII, ERP, etc., I have always followed the wisdom of people such as Oliver Wight and George Plossl. The system is […]

Why has residential building construction remained so strong, despite the recessionary-level decline in permits and starts?

Why has residential building construction remained so strong, despite the recessionary-level decline in permits and starts?  – by New Deal democrat As an initial note, there is no economic news today. For obvious reasons there won’t be on Thursday or Friday either. So, don’t be surprised if I take a couple of days off as […]

Semaglutides and the next public health revolution

It is hard to overstate the transformational public health benefits of anti-hypertensives and statins for blood pressure and serum cholesterol control. For a modest cost, these drugs not only mitigate human suffering but save billions, if not trillions, of dollars by avoiding costly surgical interventions. The repurposing of anti-diabetic drugs like semaglutide and tirzepatide for […]

New Deal Democrats Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17

Weekly Indicators for November 13 – 17 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. After a brief pause, the coincident indicators have continued to improve. There are now very few that are not positive. The spotlight therefore remains on the short leading indicators, as to which […]

Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion

Housing construction continues to support subdued expansion  – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I wrote of how manufacturing has faded somewhat as a leading indicator, at least in the sense that it takes a steeper downturn than it used to in order to forecast a wider downturn in the economy. Which makes the other big […]

State Taxes are Driving People to Moving to Other States?

A rewrite by me combining several articles . . . “Go woke, go broke,” cited by one billionaire.” The implication? The ongoing culture war and economic policies of northeastern states had facilitated the migration of wealth and economic power to the South. California has the highest marginal tax rate in the nation. California also has […]