Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

What to watch on jobs day – revenge of the managers

AB: I tend to believe the Pandemic caused more economic upheaval than Wall Street blowing up the economy and Main Street paying for WS’s pennies on the dollar gambling with CDS, naked CDS, etc. in the derivatives market. More was made available in 2020 onward by the government to lessen the impact of the Pandemic. […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators for June 3 – 7 2024

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha.  The stock market was conflicted by yesterday’s jobs report, but the bond market’s verdict was unequivocal: ignore the unemployment rate; it was a strong report which will stay the Fed’s hand from raising rates.  Meanwhile, coincident economic data in particular continues to […]

Cooling? Or Red-Hot? Psst Labor Market

I am not going to put Preston Mui’s entire Labor Market Recap May 2024: Still Cool report from Employ America up on Angry Bear. Most of all, I wanted his summation of what he was seeing. He gives up his reasoning as to why the two surveys differ. It is an easy read if you […]

We have a serious problem: the two job surveys show two completely opposed economies

If you have been reading New Deal democrat’s over the weeks, you would already know the economy we have today is not for sure. The FED is holding the keys to a transition to a good economy favoring people or one that will punish people through no fault of their own. Houston, we have a […]

Saving Rural Hospitals and Strengthening Rural Healthcare

Center for Healthcare Quality and Payment Reform CHQPR I started reviewing rural hospitals a little over a year ago. Not much has changed. These smaller hospitals lack for resource and manpower because of their budget restraints. Services they provide may not be covered by a patient’s fees. As a result, they are always battling their budget. […]

Initial jobless claims now in a confirmed seasonal uptrend, but still positive for the economy

 – by New Deal democrat My “quick and dirty” economic status indicator is the stock market (still making new all-time highs) and initial jobless claims, which are also still positive for the economy despite being in an apparent uptrend. Last week initial claims rose 8,000 to 229,000, their second highest level in the past 9 […]

ISM weighted manufacturing + services indexes signal continued expansion

– by New Deal democrat I never used to pay much attention to the ISM non-manufacturing report. That is partly because it only has a 20 year history, and partly because it seems to be more coincident than leading: But because manufacturing has faded so much as a share of the US economy, with at […]

The Case for the Proposition That the Macro-economic Soft Landing Continues, Uninterrupted; & Implications

In which I read Paul Krugman, & once again find myself arguing myself into believing that the Federal Reserve ought to have spent this spring cutting interest rates . . . by Brad Delong Grasping Reality Newsletter AB: I receive some of Brad DeLong’s commentaries in my inbox. I read them and have not posted […]