I bookmarked a prediction about the coronavirus by supply-sider Scott Grannis one year ago … As I mention from time to time, I read a number of economic observers with whose opinions I usually strongly disagree, partly because it is good to consider other points of view, and partly because some compile excellent and interesting […]
American plutocracy in two simple graphs; plus, when will wage growth bottom? The JOLTS report for February comes out later this morning; I may post on it later or tomorrow. In the meantime, here are updates on several graphs I used to run during the last expansion in order to examine how shared out (or […]
The “Work Ethic” Hoax The story has been told that Martin Luther invented the doctrine of the “calling” and that John Calvin (“my friends call me Jean”) intensified it with his doctrine of predestination. Subsequent pastoral literature softened the predestination blow with the Protestant ethic that working hard and succeeding would show that you were […]
Blockbuster March jobs report, but still a long way to go –HEADLINES: +916,000 million jobs added. The alternate, and more volatile measure in the household report indicated a gain of 609,000 jobs, which factors into the unemployment and underemployment rates below. U3 unemployment rate declined 0.2% to 6.0%, compared with the January 2020 low of […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for March 29 – April 2 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. One fairly unique service I think I provide is not just forecasting the next few months, but into the next year as well. So in the second half of last year I […]
Commenter RJS at MarketWatch 666 Construction Spending Fell 0.8% in February after January & December Figures Were Revised Higher The Census Bureau’s report on February construction spending (pdf) reported that “Construction spending during February 2021 was estimated at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of $1,516.9 billion, 0.8 percent (±0.7 percent) below the revised January estimate of $1,529.0 billion. The February […]
Nick Rowe was looking for the role of money in the Heuristic Macro Model, which is often used to introduce students to Trade economics. The problem he discovered is that there is only a role for money if there is friction in the model, and therefore a two-household (or household-firm or firm-firm) model makes money […]
by Joseph Joyce The Need for a Global Corporate Tax Regime When the Organization for Economic Cooperation and Development began its call for a reform of the rules of global taxes in order to clamp down on the avoidance of taxes by multinational corporations, its efforts looked quixotic. But the OECD persisted, and U.S. Treasury Secretary […]
by New Deal democrat Housing and the economy, now and in 2022 – recession caution? My long-form review and forecast of the housing market and its potential effect on the 2022 economy is up at Seeking Alpha. If the market stays like 2014 when interest rates went up, no biggie. But if it’s more like the […]
New jobless claims rise slightly, expect a big payrolls gain tomorrow New jobless claims are likely to the most important weekly economic data for the next 3 to 6 months. They are going to tell us whether, as the number of those vaccinated continues to increase, there will be a veritable surge in renewed commercial […]