Coronavirus dashboard: entering the home stretch?
Coronavirus dashboard: entering the home stretch?
G*d willing, I will only feel the need to update this information for another month or two. The US is simply making great progress on all fronts, and there are no new outbreaks in any of the States.
Close to 40% of the entire US population is totally vaccinated, and almost 50% has received at least one dose:
As a result, both cases and deaths are lower than their troughs last summer, and are at 10 to 11 month lows. Deaths are down about 85% from peak, and cases down 88%:
At their current trajectory, there will be fewer cases than at any time since March 2020 in about 2 weeks. Deaths, which are declining at a much slower trajectory, may be there in 4 to 6 weeks.
And there are no States with rising caseloads. The 4 I showed last week – Colorado, Maine, Oregon, and Washington State – all are now in decline. And Michigan, which had a severe outbreak about 3 months ago, has seen a decline of 80% since then:
With some luck, I will be able to put up my last Coronavirus post, celebrating independence from the virus, on the 4th of July!
The data seems to me pretty suggestive that immunity (vaccinations + natural) is wildly more effective than anything else attempted in the US. Social restrictions plus masks (as used in practice, not necessarily hypothetical best use) probably were quite ineffective if adding this amount of vaccine to the system smashed the infection rates so dramatically. While I guess current vaccination rates seem disappointing right now, every one added is probably altering the system dynamics more than folks perhaps thought it would. Maybe Flag Day in June is a better endpoint for this than July 4th. Heck, if you want to wrap this up Memorial Day feel free.
Eric:
“immunity (vaccinations + natural) is wildly more effective than anything else attempted in the US. Social restrictions plus masks (as used in practice, not necessarily hypothetical best use) probably were quite ineffective if adding this amount of vaccine to the system smashed the infection rates so dramatically.”
That is simply a wild, untrue, and nonsensical statement to make in an effort to justify doing nothing during the one year time period waiting for a vaccine to PREVENT Covid when Covid started to take hold. The vaccine does not cure Covid. Six feet of social distancing or complete isolation plus a mask while in public will minimize the chance of you catching Covid and if asymptomatic the mask will minimize the spread of Covid via aerosol exhaling from “your” breathing.
Don’t get the shot, just stay away from anyone else.