April’s Producer Data

April’s consumer and producer prices, retail sales, and industrial production; March business inventories and JOLTS, Commenter RJS, Market Watch 666

Producer Prices rose 0.6% in April on Higher Wholesale Food Prices, Wider Margins for Transportation Services

The seasonally adjusted Producer Price Index (PPI) for final demand rose 0.6% in March, as prices for both finished wholesale goods and margins of final services providers rose 0.6%. That increase followed a March report that had the PPI 1.0% higher, as prices for finished wholesale goods rose 1.7% while margins of final services providers rose 0.7%, a February report that the PPI was 0.5% higher, with prices for finished wholesale goods on average 1.4% higher, while margins of final services providers increased by 0.1%, a revised January report that still has the PPI 1.3% higher, with average prices for finished wholesale goods now rising 1.6%, while margins of final services providers increased by 1.1%, and a re-revised December report that indicates the PPI was up 0.3%, with prices for finished wholesale goods up 0.9% while margins of final services providers were unchanged on an unadjusted basis, producer prices are now 6.2% higher than a year ago, up from the 4.2% year over year increase indicated by last month’s report, while, the core producer price index, which excludes food, energy and trade services, rose by 0.7% for the month, and is now 4.6% higher than in April a year ago, up from the 3.1% year over year increase as was shown in February…

As noted, the price index for final demand for goods, aka ‘finished goods’, was 0.6% higher in April, after being 1.7% higher in March, 1.4% higher in February, 1.6% higher in January, 0.9% higher in December, 0.4% higher in November, 0.5% higher in October, 0.4% higher in September, 0.4% higher in August, 0.5% higher in July, 0.4% higher in June, and 1.4% higher in May, but 2.8% lower in April of last year….the finished goods price index rose 0.6% in February because the price index for wholesale foods rose 2.1%, after rising by 0.5% in March, 1.3% in February, rising a revised 1.7% in January, but falling by a revised 1.4% in December, while the price index for wholesale energy goods was 2.4% lower, after it had risen by 5.9% in March, 6.0% in February, and by 4.9% in both January and December.

Meanwhile, the index for final demand for core wholesale goods (excluding food and energy) was 1.0% higher, after it had risen by 0.9% in March, 0.3% in February and 0.8% in January. Wholesale energy prices averaged 2.4% lower due to a 3.4% decrease in wholesale prices for gasoline, a 7.6% decrease in wholesale prices for No.2 diesel fuel, and a 10.1% drop in wholesale prices for LP gas.

While the wholesale food price index rose 2.1% on a 13.4% increase in the wholesale price index for beef and veal, a 10.2% increase in the wholesale price index for pork, and a 3.6% increase in wholesale price index for dairy products…among core wholesale goods, the wholesale price index for steel mill products jumped 18.4%, the wholesale price index for industrial chemicals rose 3.0%, the wholesale price index for truck trailers rose 3.7%, and the wholesale price index for mobile homes rose 5.8% ..

At the same time, the index for final demand for services rose 0.6% in April, after rising 0.7% in March, 0.1% in February and a revised 1.1% in January, as the index for final demand for trade services rose 0.5%, the index for final demand for transportation and warehousing services rose 2.1%, and the core index for final demand for services less trade, transportation, and warehousing services was 0.5% higher.

Among trade services, seasonally adjusted margins for fuels and lubricants retailers rose 8.4%, margins for cleaning supplies and paper products retailers rose 7.4%, margins for computer hardware, software, and supplies retailers rose 4.4%, margins for TV, video, and photographic equipment and supplies retailers rose 5.1%, and margins for food and alcohol retailers rose 3.0%, while margins for apparel wholesalers fell 11.5%.

Among transportation and warehousing services, margins for airline passenger services rose 7.3%, average margins for air transportation of freight rose 1.2%, and average margins for rail transportation of freight and mail rose 0.6%…among the components of the core final demand for services index, the index for portfolio management rose 1.5%, margins for passenger car rental rose 17.0%, and margins for arrangement of vehicle rentals and lodging rose 3.9%, while margins for tax preparation and planning fell 5.1% …

This report also showed the price index for intermediate processed goods rose 1.6% in April, after rising 4.0% in March, 2.7% in February, a revised 1.5% in January, a revised 1.4% in December, 0.9% in November, 0.9% in October, 0.6% in September, 0.9% in August, 1.4% in July, and 1.2% in June, but after being unchanged in May and falling the prior 5 months….however, the price index for intermediate energy goods fell 4.1% in April, as refinery prices for gasoline fell 3.4%, refinery prices for No. 2 diesel fuel fell 7.6%, producer prices for LP gas fell 10.1%, producer prices for industrial electric power fell 6.2%, and producer prices for natural gas to electric utilities fell 4.9%.

Meanwhile, the price index for intermediate processed foods and feeds rose 3.3%, as the producer price index for meats rose 9.8%, the producer price index for processed poultry rose 4.1%, and the producer price index for fats and oils rose 8.0%…at the same time, the core price index for intermediate processed goods less food and energy rose 2.9% as the producer price index for plastic resins and materials rose 7.5%, the producer price index for aluminum mill shapes rose 7.5%, the producer price index for steel mill products rose 18.4%, the producer price index for plywood rose 10.0%, and the producer price index for building paper and board rose 9.2%…prices for intermediate processed goods are now 18.4% higher than in March a year ago, the fifth increase after 19 consecutive year over year decreases, which followed 29 months of year over year increases, which had been preceded by 16 months of negative year over year comparisons, as prices for intermediate goods fell every month from July 2015 through March 2016….

The price index for intermediate unprocessed goods fell 3.8% in April, after rising 9.3% in March, 4.3% in February, a revised 4.0% in January, a revised 2.1% in December, and after rising by 6.3% in November, 1.3% in October, 5.2% in September, 4.0% in August, 0.6% in July, 5.4% in June and 8.4% in May, but after falling 13.7% last April. That was as the April price index for crude energy goods fell 17.2% as crude oil prices fell 7.2% and unprocessed natural gas prices fell 32.1%, while coal prices rose 2.0%, while the price index for unprocessed foodstuffs and feedstuffs rose 7.9% on a 37.4% increase in the price of slaughter hogs, a 19.0% increase in the price of slaughter chickens, and a 12.2% increase in producer prices for slaughter cattle….at the same time, the index for core raw materials other than food and energy materials rose 1.2%, as the price index for copper base scrap rose 3.3% and the price index for recyclable paper rose 8.3%… this raw materials index is now 57.6% higher than a year ago, just the sixth year over year increase in more than 2 years, as the annual change on this index had been negative from the beginning of 2019 through October of last year…

Lastly, the price index for services for intermediate demand rose 0.4% in March, after rising 0.4% in March, 0.7% in February, a revised 0.9% in January, and a revised 0.7% in December, after being unchanged in November, rising 0.7% in October, rising 1.1% in September, 0.8% in August, 0.5% in July, and 0.3% last June.

The price index for intermediate trade services was 1.5% higher, as margins for intermediate hardware, building material, and supplies retailers rose 7.0%, margins for intermediate building materials, paint, and hardware wholesalers rose 2.3%, margins for intermediate paper and plastics products wholesalers rose 2.2%, and margins for intermediate metals, minerals, and ores wholesalers rose 2.3%…meanwhile, the index for transportation and warehousing services for intermediate demand was 2.0% higher, as the intermediate price index for arrangement of freight and cargo rose 12.3%, the intermediate price index for transportation of passengers (partial) rose 7.1%, the intermediate price index for water transportation of freight rose 1.6%, the intermediate price index for services related to water transportation rose 1.7%, and the intermediate price index for air transportation of freight rose 1.2%….at the same time, the core price index for intermediate services other than trade, transportation, and warehousing services rose 0.4%, as the intermediate price index for passenger car rental rose17.0%, the intermediate price index for executive search services rose 4.0%, the intermediate price index for radio advertising time sales rose 5.4%, and the intermediate price index for traveler accommodation services rose 2.3%, while the intermediate price index for securities brokerage, dealing, investment advice, and related services fell 2.4%…over the 12 months ended in April, the year over year price index for services for intermediate demand is now 6.7% higher than it was a year ago, the eighth consecutive positive annual change since it briefly turned negative year  over year from April to August, and the largest 12-month advance in the ten year history of this index..