A yellow flag from temporary hiring In the conclusion of my latest Weekly Indicators post, I wrote that, except for temporary staffing, I didn’t see any signs of weakness spreading out beyond manufacturing and import/export. Manufacturing, as measured by industrial production, has been in a shallow recession all year. By contrast, the consumer – 70% […]
I covered the House SECURE Act and the Senate RESA version last July. The House RESA Act is up for consideration in the Senate now. It does not look like it is going to make it due to the impeachment process going on and a potential trial in the Senate. There is also a small […]
Introduction: I am still on the mailing lists of quite a few resin and plastics companies. This particular presentation is from Sesotec GmbH (“company with limited liability”). Sesotec was an exhibitor at the K trade fair in Düsseldorf and now is reflecting on an exciting and positive trade fair appearance (for them) with its topic […]
by Eric Kramer Liberal economists are open to persuasion. What about conservatives? There are many examples within the economics profession of cases where liberals have been persuaded by conservative arguments that raise doubts about the value of government intervention in markets. Harold Demsetz argued that it is a mistake to call for government intervention simply […]
by David Zetland (originally published at One handed economist) Big data helps monopolies, not you Economists say competition in markets rages from “perfect” (no company can charge a price over cost without losing 100% of its customers to another company) to “monopoly” (one company sets prices to maximize profits). Two caveats are important. First, the monopolist […]
by New Deal democrat Weekly Indicators for November 11 – 15 at Seeking Alpha My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. Although a few indicators backed off some this week, the overall tone, ex-manufacturing, across all time frames is positive. You may be reading a few takes today about the poor nowcasts out of […]
Industrial production tanks on GM strikes; Real retail sales decline slightly First, let me briefly address industrial production, which fell -0.8% in October. On its face this is an awful number. But take it with a big grain of salt: mainly it reflected the GM strike. Here’s the applicable note from the Federal Reserve: Manufacturing output […]
Is Venezuela Stabilizing? Maybe. It looks the inflation rate in Venezuela maxed out in January at an annuualized rate of 192,000 % , whiich fell by September to 4,600% rate, still in hyperinflationary teritoryy, but clearly coming down substantially. I am not a fan of this regime and never was, unlike some prominent economists saying […]
Initial claims continue to show slowdown, but no imminent recession I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of a slowdown turning into something worse. Simply put, no recession is going to begin unless and until layoffs increase. My two thresholds are: 1. If […]
(Dan here…Eric will be posting some of his work. He has read many econ blogs but has not published in the econ blogosphere. He is experienced otherwise…welcome Eric.) Bio for Eric Kramer I am an economist and lawyer by training and I am currently writing a book on political economy and the role of government. […]