An Explanation: The Index of Consumer Expectations focuses on three areas: how consumers view prospects for their own financial situation, how they view prospects for the general economy over the near term, and their view of prospects for the economy over the long term. Each monthly survey contains approximately 50 core questions, each of which […]
Prof. Heather Cox Richardson Letters from an American May 22, 2026 On May 22, 1964, in a graduation speech at the University of Michigan, President Lyndon Johnson put a name to a new vision for the United States. He called it “the Great Society” and laid out the vision of a country that did not […]
– by New Deal democrat Although manufacturing is far less important to the US economy than it was in the decades after World War II, it is still about 25% of the total weighting; and further, it is more vulnerable to shocks than the services portion of the economy. Which means, for forecasting purposes, it […]
A preliminary estimate of GDP growth in the first quarter 2026. US economy expanded at an annualized rate of 2.0% in Q1 2026, up from 0.5% in the previous quarter. Growth was below the market expectations of 2.3%, Consumer spending (accounts for roughly two-thirds of economic activity) rose at a slower pace of 1.6% in […]
Partial of a report by Oil Price is dated May 17 as written by Irina Slav. As expected, the United States is headed for a shortage while our president fiddles away with attacking Iran. He started something which is going to be difficult to end and has put the US as well as other countries […]
Twenty years ago, Professor Edward Leamer gave an important presentation at the Fed’s Jackson Hole meeting entitled “Housing IS the Business Cycle.” The current environment is putting that hypothesis to a very severe test. Because by all accounts housing has deteriorated sufficiently that a recession should already have begun months ago. In fact, the current […]
– by New Deal democrat I’ll get to housing permits and starts later this morning. But first, let me take my regular look at initial and continuing jobless claims. As a reminder, I look at jobless claims because historically they have been a very good short leading indicator for the economy. And they continue to […]
Trump appointee (2017) Jerome Powell has been relieved of his duty as the Chairman of the FED. Not sure if Trump could have fired him or not. Not sure why Jerome Powell took so much grief from Trump? Yet (or as far as I know) Powell intends to stay on the Fed Board. It will […]
Trump’s Immigration Enforcement Hurts All Workers “Unemployment has increased for U.S.-born workers in the face of mass deportations,” Economic Policy Institute During the 2024 campaign, Donald Trump and J.D. Vance stated mass deportations and a crackdown on immigration would open up more jobs for unemployed U.S. citizens. The removal of immigrant workers would cause opportunities […]
– by New Deal democrat The drought of significant official economic data continues today, but this is a good time to update my forecast for the effect of the spike in gas prices on inflation, specifically for May. To reiterate, my back of the envelope calculation is to take the percent change in the price […]