Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

Eliminating the USMCA with Mexico and Canada

I worked between Mexico and the US for an automotive company that made wire harness and other components for automotive companies. The assemblies would be done in one plant and then shuffled off to another plant in Mexico and then cross over into the United States for final production, packaging, and shipment to one of […]

Some of New Deal Democrat’s Weekly Indicators for June 8 – 12

 – by New Deal democrat My “Weekly Indicators” post is up at Seeking Alpha. “Consumers Back Off – Slightly” There was little change this week, but restaurant reservations – the first expense I would expect stretched consumers to cut back on – did slacken a little bit. And withholding tax payments over the past four weeks barely […]

Status of the Global Oil Issues caused by a US President

Report on Oil coming out of the middle east as Trump and Iran try to find common ground. This is way out of the ordinary and pretty much did not have to occur except for an oversized ego in the western hemisphere trying to make his mark globally. I am sure people will remember this […]

The entire US economy is downstream of the AI buildout dam, and that dam is almost certain to fail

– by New Deal democrat I’ve been ambivalent about whether the mania for AI is a Boom or a Bubble. That’s because whether its use is transformative or, like Steve Jobs’ claims that the Segway would revolutionize transportation, not so much.  But what has become increasingly clear is that virtually the entire economy has been […]

Decreased Factory Utilization and Increasing Capacity

Factory construction has trended downward due to economic uncertainty, throughput improvements, material costs increasing, and increasing interest rates. Companies are not willing to risk investment at this time without a sound future forecast to utilize additional factory production. The surge in 2024 was driven by policies such as the CHIPS Act. Demand cooled as companies […]

Producer prices suggest 5%+ YoY CPI, and very soon

 – by New Deal democrat I just wanted to drop a brief note about this morning’s PPI report. In May headline producer prices rose 1.1% for the month (the second such increase in a row), and on a YoY basis increased 6.5%. Final demand goods prices are up 9.1% YoY, and final demand services up 4.9%: […]

More evidence for the return of post-pandemic seasonality in jobless claims

 – by New Deal democrat Last week I wrote that “we’re coming up on the one year anniversary of that change of regime, so it will be interesting to see if the negative YoY comparisons continue, or if they fade away. This week’s numbers are noteworthy in that regard, because they suggest that – maybe – […]

“What will the politicians do to hold healthcare corporations accountable for high costs?”

Commentary by Andrew Sprung at his site: xpostfactoid. Besides the other factors, I will point out, Hospital Prices Have Risen Much Faster for Private Insurance Than Medicare Since 2019 per a KFF report in May of this year. The increases “represent approximately one third of total health care spending and accounted for 40% of spending growth from 2022 to […]