Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

State and local governments are not spending a majority of American Rescue Plan funds, yet

AB: The link below the chart developed by Josh Bivens is to find subsidies or funds granted to towns, cities, counties, and states under the American Rescue Plan Act. For example, one small city i live in was granted $6.7 millions to which they wish to apply for an eight-mile water pipeline to an area […]

New Deal democrats weekly Indicators August 14-18 2023

Weekly Indicators for August 14 – 18 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat [First of all, a reminder: I am on vacation for the next week, so don’t expect daily posts, especially if no significant economic data is released.] My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While collapsing commodity prices have buoyed the […]

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates

The importance of 10 (and 20) year new highs in interest rates  – by New Deal democrat As you may have already read elsewhere, interest rates on the 10 year US Treasury just made a new 10+ year high. Perhaps more importantly, 30 year mortgage rates made a new 20+ year high: Both rates are slightly […]

private equity is destroying the labors of love

Successful industrialists financial Wall Street bankers whose business practices were often are considered ruthless and unethical, capturing portions of the market, and bleeding it dry. Not much left of the hollowed-out companies other than a name and the empty buildings they once occupied. Good commentary on Simon and Schuster being bought by KKR. Is Robber […]

Initial claims travelin’ man edition: still below cautionary levels

Initial claims travelin’ man edition: still below cautionary levels  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims were 250,000 last week. The 4 week average increased to 234,250. Continuing claims with a one week delay were 1.716 million. Most importantly, YoY the4 week moving average is up 9.5%: This is well below the 12.5% YoY increase […]

Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition

Industrial production improves, with help from vehicle production: travelin’ man edition  – by New Deal democrat Industrial production increased 1.0% in July. Its manufacturing component increased 0.5%. Total production is still down -0.6% from its peak last autumn, while manufacturing is down -01.%: These are not recessionary numbers.  It’s worth emphasizing that the unspooling of […]

Free Lunches, Portfolio Allocation, and Equity Premia: Part 1

TANSTAAFL. There Ain’t No Such Thing as a Free Lunch. Someone pays, somehow. The standard textbook example is pilots who refill their plane at a gas station that offers them a “free” steak dinner while charging five cents a gallon more than another station at the same airport. The pilot and co-pilot get $50 dinners […]

The last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition

In housing construction, the last domino still refuses to fall: Travelin’ Man edition  – by New Deal democrat [First, a blogging note: I will be traveling for the next week and a half. I’ll keep posting the data, but the posts are likely to be brief, and may be a day late. On days when there […]

Chickens, Eggs, and Krugman

Paul Krugman has the amazing ability to get me (briefly) interested in economic theory. He writes that the (non provisional) IRA has had a larger than expected impact on investment writing: Paul Krugman has the amazing ability to get me (briefly) interested in economic theory. He writes that the (non provisional) IRA has had a […]

Non-fungible tokens

Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) first came to my attention just a couple years ago. Apparently, anything could be an NFT. Per Investopedia: “Non-fungible tokens (NFTs) are assets that have been tokenized via a blockchain. They are assigned unique identification codes and metadata that distinguish them from other tokens. “NFTs can be traded and exchanged for money, […]