July jobs report: almost across the board deterioration in leading sectors – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs growth continues to decelerate, and whether the leading indicators, particularly manufacturing and construction jobs, as well as the unemployment rate (which leads going into recessions) have meaningfully deteriorated. Almost all of these items […]
Jobless claims: a good example of why my forecasting discipline demands a confirmed trend – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims for the last week of July rose 6,000 to 227,000. The 4 week average decreased -5,500 to 228,250. Continuing claims, with a one week lag, rose 21,000 to 1.7 million: The YoY% change […]
This is an abbreviated version of a Canadian trial which examines whether eliminating out-of-pocket costs would improve the health of people taking the medications by making drugs less costly. The greater impact was amongst lower income participants who may not take drugs as prescribed to lengthen a refill timetable. The elimination of out-of-pocket medication costs […]
June’s JOLTS report: slow progress towards a new equilibrium – by New Deal democrat Yesterday’s JOLTS report for June captured a labor market that continues to move towards a new equilibrium, mainly via a gradual decline in job openings compared with labor availability. In other words, for the umpteenth time, “deceleration.” Job openings and actual hires […]
Manufacturing and construction give very mixed signals to start Second Half 2023 data – by New Deal democrat As usual, the month’s data started out with the ISM manufacturing report for last month, and construction spending for the month before last. Additionally, I am going to take a look at motor vehicle production, because I […]
AB: This a good coverage on healthcare in the US as compared to other countries. It is long. It also has many charts and graphs rather than words. This is why I posted this at Angry Bear. It is easy to grasp the implications. U.S. Health Care from a Global Perspective, 2022, Commonwealth Fund, Munira […]
Dow Theory says transportation and production of goods should move in tandem; what is its message now? – by New Deal democrat Partly because mid year data is now being completed, and partly to re-examine my forecasts, I’ve been conducting a top-to-bottom re-check of my metrics. One thing that seems very important is that, despite […]
Weekly Indicators for July 24 – 28 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. While there continues to be evidence of the normal progression of weakness from long leading to short leading to coincident indicators, there has also been an anomalous major positive resurgence in some […]
Driven by the hurricane force disinflationary tailwind, real personal spending and income, and real sales, all increase nicely – by New Deal democrat In the current economy the personal spending and income report is just as important as the jobs report. That’s because, despite the downturn in manufacturing production and many parts of the housing […]
As a warehouse manager for $250 million in sales annually warehouse, I was tasked with distribution, inventory, and costs. In other words, we had to ship on time to get inventory overseas via train to container ships and customs in a timely manner to our plants. We did it but not without my going back […]