Relevant and even prescient commentary on news, politics and the economy.

New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales

New 20+ year record high mortgage rates begin to impact home sales; bifurcation in new vs. existing home prices continues  – by New Deal democrat In addition to updated reports on new home sales and prices, and existing home prices this morning, there’s some very important news on mortgage rates. Namely, at 7.51%, mortgage rates […]

Is It Worth the Pollution and Costs? Flying Montreal Bagels to Vancouver, Canada

We do not measure the amount of pollution and costs incurring when products are transporting in a way having greater pollution and cost. This as measured against local products. A comment on Lloyd Alter’s piece discusses dough coming from Italy for pizzas? “I’m less concerned about this than that our major grocery chains. Currently, PC […]

Bad Journalism

Hmm. Maybe Trump *does* have a point about the lying press after all. Here’s the Reuters headline:“Biden, Trump to woo union workers in Michigan as auto strikes grow” So where are Trump and Biden going to woo union workers? “Former President Donald Trump is scheduled to visit a Macomb County automotive supplier of engine and […]

New Deal democrats Weekly Indicators September 18 – 22 2023

Weekly Indicators for September 18 – 22 at Seeking Alpha  – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. With interest rates at or near multi-decade highs, and the existing home market completely seized up, the background financial condition have trended even worse. Meanwhile the shorter term indicators may be getting reading […]

Sales near 25 year lows, huge divergence between New and Existing Home Sales continues

With sales near 25 year lows, the huge divergence between the existing and new home markets continues  – by New Deal democrat The drastic bifurcation between the new and existing home markets continues. Existing home sales fell to 4.04 million annualized in August, the lowest level of the entire past 10+ years except for last […]

Open Thread – NPs and PAs are Handling Primary Care Visits

Open Thread: NPs and PAs are Handling Increasingly More Primary Care Visits, Medscape, Avery Hurt “Healthcare Primary Care visits to NPs and PAs, also known as advanced practice providers, have been rising in recent years compared to doctor visits, according to the latest studies. The proportion of Medicare visits that NPs and PAs delivered nearly […]

Unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons

Initial jobless claims: unresolved seasonality obscures cautionary YoY comparisons  – by New Deal democrat For the last few weeks, I have been highlighting that there is likely some unresolved post-pandemic seasonality in the initial claims numbers. That certainly looked like the case this week, as a sharp decline mirrored a similar sharp decline 52 weeks […]

Stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an average of the YoY% change in the stock market and the unemployment rate (which hopefully he won’t mind me mentioning here). It called to mind […]

Timothy Snyder on why we should thank Ukrainians

Timothy Snyder is the Richard C. Levin Professor of History at Yale University, a permanent fellow at the Institute for Human Sciences in Vienna and an expert on Russian and Eastern European history. Yesterday, he narrated an essay on his subscription-only Substack site “Thinking about . . . “ on the occasion of Volodymyr Zelenskyy’s […]