I have a very extreme opinion about what we can learn from the struggle between Russian and Ukraine for control of the Black Sea. First I think it is agreed that Ukraine basically has won the struggle so far. First Russia removed naval vessels from Sebastopol to Russia proper — this is huge news as […]
Weekly Indicators for January 8 – 12 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. There are almost always a few interesting ripples in the pond. In the past month, notably there has been the sudden collapse in YoY tax withholding payments. I’m not too concerned yet, […]
Producer prices flat, commodities decline, confirming shelter as sole inflationary pressure – by New Deal democrat Once again producer prices confirmed that the only significant problem in inflation is shelter. In December commodity prices declined -1.3%. For finished goods they declined -1.2%. Even producer prices for services were unchanged: On a YoY basis, commodity prices […]
Our current economic model, premised on profits and returns, consumption, and growth — on greed, has proven to be problematic for the environment, society, and governance.* Over time, humans have inflicted grave damage to the land, forests, rivers, streams, and atmosphere. Some of this was in the interest of survival. A lot more was done […]
Consumer inflation remains all about the lagged effect of house prices – by New Deal democrat Consumer inflation in December continued to be a tale of the relative importance of gas prices vs. the lagged effect of home prices. Headline inflation increased 0.3%, and was up 3.4% YoY. YoY headline inflation has bounced between 3.1%-3.7% […]
The good news on jobless claims continues – by New Deal democrat The recent streak of very positive news on jobless claims continued this week. Initial claims declined -1,000 to 201,000. The four week moving average declined -250 to 207,750. With the usual one week delay, continuing claims declined -34,000 to 1.834 million. The first […]
We have been needing more people, people of some importance, to say something about the economy besides how bad it is. Mind you, no matter how good the recovery is; the negatives will still flow from the other side of the room. If you have been reading New Deal democrat’s commentary at Angry Bear each […]
Sales lead employment: real aggregate payrolls update – by New Deal democrat The drought in new data ends tomorrow with consumer inflation. In preparation, let’s take a look at real aggregate payrolls. These increased 0.2% in December, one of the lower readings in the past 2 years: On a YoY basis, aggregate nonsupervisory payrolls increased […]
USPS tells regulator, “Mind your own regulations.” Save the Post Office, Steve Hutkins The Postal Service has started off the New Year by refusing to answer important questions about its 10-year plan, Delivering for America. Earlier this week, the Postal Service told the Postal Regulatory Commission that its latest information request was outside the statutory […]
Scenes from the jobs report 2: the unemployment rate and consumption: weak, but not recessionary – by New Deal democrat Yesterday I looked at some employment metrics from Friday’s jobs report. Today let’s look at un- (and under-) employment. Every Thursday I repeat the mantra that jobless claims lead the unemployment rate. Here are both […]