A discussion: EV sales have been stalling, while hybrids are flying off dealer lots – by New Deal democrat In addition to housing, the other big area where supply shock inflation has not completely resolved is vehicles. Basically almost the entirety of 2020 production was lost, leading to roughly a 10 million vehicle shortfall in […]
The Bonddad Blog: Are working class wages really still a malady? New Deal democrat Via Kevin Drum, NY Times columnist Nick Kristof says, “There isn’t a good term for the bundle of pathologies that have afflicted working-class Americans . . . .” “One gauge of how many Americans are struggling is that average weekly nonsupervisory wages, a […]
Weekly Indicators for January 15 – 19 at Seeking Alpha – by New Deal democrat My Weekly Indicators post is up at Seeking Alpha. The big headlines yesterday were that stocks made a new all time high, for the first time in two years. Meanwhile, estimated plus actual earnings so far for the 4th Quarter of […]
Briefly noted: existing home sales appear to be bottoming near 30 year lows as prices continue to firm – by New Deal democrat Last month I wrote that existing home sales “are likely in the process of bottoming, as they have been in the range of 3.79 million to 4.10 million for the past five months:” […]
Housing construction changes little in December; but increased mortgage rates from H2 2023 have not yet been digested – by New Deal democrat For this post, I’m going to show what the housing market looks like from most to least leading of the indicators. That shows that, although this morning’s release for housing permits and […]
Jobless claims: bar one week, the lowest number of layoffs in over half a century – by New Deal democrat To reiterate my theme from last week, we’re back to the virtuous scenario where almost nobody is getting laid off. Initial jobless claims last week declined -16,000 to 187,000. Except for one week in September […]
Industrial production continues in near-recessionary trajectory – by New Deal democrat In contrast to this morning’s good news on consumption, production continued its lackluster 2023 all the way to the end. Total industrial production (blue in the graph below) increased 0.1% in December, but revisions to the two previous months totaled -0.2%, so the net […]
December real retail sales: the good economic news keeps on coming – by New Deal democrat The good economic news kept coming with this morning’s retail sales report for December. Remember that this is one of my favorite indicators because, adjusted for population, it is a fairly good long leading indicator, and on a short […]
As vehicles and outdoor appliances become increasingly electric, long term gas usage – and “real” prices – decline – by New Deal democrat What is the “real” cost of gasoline? When measuring this, some people compare with the CPI. But that actually just tells you the *relative* inflation in gas vs. other items. That’s why, […]
For MLK Day: Blacks are faring better during the post-pandemic Boom than at almost any time in the previous 50+ years – by New Deal democrat On this MLK Jr. national holiday, let’s take a look at how Blacks are faring in the current economy. And the answer is, pretty good! The unemployment rate for Blacks […]