The latter part of New Deal’s report on January 2025 Jobs portends of things to come in the economic reporting of Employment and Unemployment statistics. It is thought the accuracy of the reporting “may” change going forward. We hope not. It is a possibility with this administration. If unreported, it is taken as never happening. […]

– by New Deal democrat Let’s take our typically weekly look at jobless claims. I do this because there are a very good and timely short leading indicator for the labor market.  Initial claims rose 11,000 to 219,000. The four week moving average rose 4,000 to 216,750. With the typical one week delay, continued claims […]

November jobs report: the expected monthly rebound masks deeper declining trends  – by New Deal democrat To understand this month’s jobs report, let’s start with last month’s, where I wrote that “there were some signs of real weakness in this report that do not appear to be hurricane-related. But Hurricane Milton, as well as the […]

I recently retired after working for the same employer for 37 years. My dad also worked ca. 35 years for his employer before retiring, as did my father-in-law. My sister worked for her employer for 40 years. Two of my sisters-in-law worked for their only employer for about that long. My daughter, on the other […]

– by New Deal democrat Continuing my catching up this week, let’s take a look in some further detail about why I didn’t think Friday’s jobs report portended recession – at least, not yet. As I always point out, the jobs report does contain some leading numbers. These are generally employment in more cyclical industries […]

 – by New Deal democrat First, a brief programming note. This week is particularly sparse in the new economic data department. The Senior Loan Officer Survey will be reported this afternoon, and on Thursday as usual we get jobless claims. Aside from that, nada. So I might take a day or two off. But I want […]

Liking your present situation right now? Your job, your house, your car, you can keep it and you may have to do so. Buying a new car, house, or getting a different job may be more costly and not pay off. Even if you are not so satisfied, chances maybe you having to manage your […]

December jobs report: consistent with a “soft landing,” despite discordance in household data  – by New Deal democrat My focus remains on whether jobs gains are most consistent with a “soft landing,” i.e., no further deterioration, or whether deceleration is ongoing; and more specifically:  The news on all three was good. The six-month average of […]

An excellent headline jobs number may mask unresolved seasonality, while unemployment weakness “stuck” at a higher level  – by New Deal democrat As per my reporting earlier this week, my focus this month was on whether wage and jobs growth continue to decelerate, and whether the unemployment rate would remain “sticky” at its higher, 3.8%, […]

Jobless claims: close but no cigar for the red flag  – by New Deal democrat Initial claims declined -9,000 to 228,000 last week, and the four week average declined -9,250 to 237,500. Continuing claims, with a one week delay, rose 33,000 to 1.754 million: More importantly for forecasting purposes, initial claims are up 7.0% YoY, the […]