by Rebecca Wilder Actually, murky is something of a good thing when referring to business cycle dynamics. It usually means that a bottom is forming. In some sense, the key to recovery is the stabilization of home values. If home values would just “stop” declining – I understand that there is a market mechanism going […]
The editors of the WSJ agree with Brad DeLong that the Fannie/Freddie problem is that their short-term cash flows may be(come) impaired: The most immediate danger is that investors will shrink from rolling over the debt of the two companies, leading to a run a la Bear Stearns….With so much on the line, we’ve been […]
John Carney at Dealbreaker notes the official reason the White House prefers that the government takeover Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac: The reason the Bush administration is leaning toward bringing Fannie Mae and Freddie Mac into conservatorship rather than backstopping the two home mortgage companies is that concern about moral hazard problem. Bailing out Fannie […]
Tom already hit this Paul Krugman column, so I’ll just put together a list: “I.R.S. lets you deduct mortgage interest from your taxable income but doesn’t let you deduct rent” But not mortgage principal. And the interest deduction still leaves an owner out of pocket for at least 65%—probably more. “[I]f the market value of […]
Bloomberg Magazine, in “Unsafe Havens”. (Hat tip to Naked Capitalism.) reports that money market funds run by Bank of America Corp., Credit Suisse Group, Fidelity Investments and Morgan Stanley owned over $6 billion of CDOs with subprime debt in June. The reason this is a serious issue is that money market funds have a $1 […]
The Census Bureau reported a sharp rise in U.S. construction spending in February led by private residential construction spending. Private residential spending increased to a record $665.7 Billion in February (SA, annual rate), 1.3% above the revised January estimate. The first graph shows private U.S. construction spending for single family homes since 1993. All numbers […]
Michael Mandel’s piece in Business Week yesterday ended by posing the following question. Suppose the doomsayers are right, and the housing bubble bursts in 2006. Suppose that the fall in real estate prices is large enough and widespread enough to cause significant economic problems for the US. What should Democrats propose that the US government […]
My thoughts are with the residents of New Orleans and the Gulf Coast tonight. This week two prominent economists predicted a housing bust and possible recession in ’06; three if you count Chairman Greenspan. Actually Greenspan’s comments, made at the Federal Reserve’s Jackson Hole Conference, were not predictions, but general observations. Quoting from Greenspan’s closing […]