– by New Deal democrat “Trump take egg” was a social media meme popularized by MTSW at Bluesky, highlighting prices that T—-p had promised would come down, but increased instead. The spike in egg prices was due to avian flu, but when it comes to internet memes, nevermind. Which is by way of introduction to saying that […]
Too many houses on the market. Opportunity for Buyers. The graph below has the details . . . As taken from: “The Housing Market Has Nearly 500,000 More Sellers Than Buyers,” Redfin, Lily Katz and Asad Khan There are an estimated 1.9 million home sellers in the U.S. housing market and an estimated 1.5 million homebuyers. In […]
– by New Deal democrat In April total permits (dark blue in the graph below) declined -69,000 on an annualized basis to 1.412 million, while the less volatile single family permits (red, right scale) number declined -50,000 to 922,000. The slightly lagging and much more volatile starts number (gray, narrow) rose 22,000 to 1.361 million annualized: […]
Housing construction declines further into recessionary territory – by New Deal democrat As promised, economic data resumed this morning, and with it my extended posts. First, the usual point that housing is a very important and leading sector of the economy, typically turning down more than a year before a recession begins. And with higher […]
1st Look at Local Housing Markets in December – by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to December 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the first look at several early reporting local markets in […]
– by New Deal democrat The very important construction data from the long leading housing sector was mixed this morning for November. The most leading datapoint, permits, increased 86,000 on an annualized basis to 1.505 million. Even more importantly, single family permits, which have the least noise and most signal of any of the datapoints, […]
– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter REO: lender Real Estate Owned We will NOT see a surge in housing foreclosures that would significantly impact house prices (as happened following the housing bubble) for two key reasons: 1) mortgage lending has been solid, and 2) most homeowners have substantial equity in their homes. Last week, CoreLogic reported […]
– by New Deal democrat I suspect that both hurricanes as well as mortgage rates somewhat distorted all of the housing reports for October. Last week with existing home sales I noted that “While sales remained in range, price appreciation increased and the pace of inventory accumulation decreased.“ There was something of a mirror image […]
– by New Deal democrat No data today, but since it is mainly a housing week, let me pick up on a topic I discussed at the end of yesterday’s post; namely, if housing does indeed forecast an oncoming recession, what should we expect next in that sector? To cut to the chase, ultimately we […]
by Bill McBride Calculated Risk From housing economist Tom Lawler: Based on publicly-available local realtor/MLS reports released across the country through today . . . I project that existing home sales as estimated by the National Association of Realtors ran at a seasonally adjusted annual rate of 3.97 million in October, up 3.4% from September’s […]