Watch Months-of-Supply! by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Both inventory and sales are well below pre-pandemic levels, and I think we need to keep an eye on months-of-supply to forecast price changes. Historically nominal prices declined when months-of-supply approached 6 months – and that is unlikely any time soon – however, as expected, months-of-supply is above 2019 […]
Home Sales on Track for Worst Year Since 1995 – WSJ I suspect the same issues with the economy caused by tariffs will also have an impact on housing. Just have to wait and see the impact of Trump tariffs on building materials and internal fixtures such as plumbing, toilets, doorknobs, etc. Much of which […]
ICE Mortgage Monitor: “Annual home price growth cooled for the seventh consecutive month” – by Bill McBride Calculated Risk Newsletter Here is the ICE November Mortgage Monitor report (pdf). Press Release: ICE Mortgage Monitor: Record Levels of Tappable Equity, Fed Rate Cuts Could Spur Resurgence in Home Equity Withdrawals Mortgage Delinquencies Increased in September Here is a graph […]
by Bill McBride Calculated Risk News Letter Economist Adam Ozimek and John Lettieri (CEO, Economic Innovation Group) have a new proposal to address the housing crisis in the United States: How the next president can solve America’s housing crisis U.S. housing costs are out of control. The median home for sale was rarely more than four times […]
– by New Deal democrat Much of the data that is being released, like yesterday’s jobless claims data, has to be viewed with an asterisk after it, because of hurricane disruptions. As an addendum to yesterday’s industrial production report, I failed to mention that the BEA that “the effects of two hurricanes subtracted an estimated 0.3 […]
– by Bill McBride Calculated Risk NOTE: The tables for active listings, new listings and closed sales all include a comparison to September 2019 for each local market (some 2019 data is not available). This is the second look at several early reporting local markets in September. I’m tracking over 40 local housing markets in […]
– Nadia Evangelou National Association of Realtors A good read explaining why things slowed down. Good introduction of why housing market fell apart since 2020. Much was due to the Fed Rate which was significantly higher than it normally was. People did not have the income to support a higher payment caused by a higher […]
– by New Deal democrat With this morning’s release of new home sales, we have all of the important housing data releases for the month. So let’s integrate that into the overall housing outlook. Let’s begin with my usual overview that new home sales are the single most leading metric for the entire sector, but […]
I think the title makes it clear that this will be a rambling confused post. I am typing on with the thought that something is better than nothing and no one has to read this. The first topic – house prices, is in fact one that interests me a lot. I have a regression which […]
– by New Deal democrat Residential construction permits and starts bounced back from their July Hurricane-Beryl affected decline, but housing units under construction declined below the threshold for hoisting a yellow “recession watch” flag for this sector. At the same time, I continue to suspect that we are rising from lows in the most leading […]