…longest previous time between onset of such an inversion and a recession. So he believes the threat of recession is still on the table. And he’s correct about the yield…

…has declined on average -15.1% and by a median of 13.4% before the onset of recessions: Three months ago I hoisted a yellow flag “recession watch” for housing construction. I…

…If housing has peaked, why will it take a year for the economy to slide into recession? I believe Dr. Leamer is relying on historical evidence that shows recessions start…

…12 months, the economy is in recession, or is about to be, is sufficient to indicate the onset of a recession, but is not necessary. Recessions in the past have…

…Fed began actively managing interest rates over 60 years ago, expansions and recessions have followed a typical pattern. The unemployment rate decreases until ultimately inflation increases. Real wages and income…

…in 2022 without a recession occurring). Any number below 50 indicates contraction. The ISM itself indicates that the number must be 42.5 or less to signal recession.  Because of the…

…late 1980s, where the pre-recession decline was -28.2%, and 2007, where the pre-recession decline was -25.6%.  Now let’s compare housing units under construction with the typical final shoes to drop…

…by near 7 million since the economic peak and down 644 thousand since the recession’s trough. Yes, employment is net down since the recession ended. These numbers are affected by…

…second recession. As he correctly points out this happened once, after the 1980 recession when the economy rebounded strongly and surpassed the prior peak two quarters after the bottom. But…

by cactus A Look at Recessions Part 1: By the President’s Political Party I am going to have a few posts on recessions over the next few weeks. This one…