…1970’s, inflation moved from 3% before the 1973 recession, rose to 11% during that recession, fell to 6% after that recession and then rose again to 13% during the 1980…

…lines go above 1.0, the yield curve is inverting and a recession is coming into view. It has been a fairly reliable chart to signal a recession. The lines are…

…cycle is like the cycle before the 1980 recession, we would see a recession about 2 years after hitting the effective demand limit… That would put a recession this year,…

…that a recession is likely, and almost imminently. A “recession watch” for the US economy is now amply justified. Almost the only reason for not upgrading to a “warning” already…

…claims has almost always been higher by 10% or more YoY before the onset of recessions, with the exception of the oil shock of 1974 and the 2008 Great Recession:…

The “Consumer nowcast” recession warning is triggered, as real wages decline, real aggregate payrolls near stall, plus record mortgage payments  – by New Deal democrat No economic news today. So,…

…to “Recession Warning.” I believe there is much more than a 50/50 chance of a recession beginning in the next 6 months. For all the gory details, click on over…

…US recession fears ease: surprisingly strong data on housing, consumer confidence, labor market, Financial Review, Vince Golle and Reade Pickert President Joe Biden told donors he thinks the US will…

…than not a recession is approaching. The Bonddad Blog But for Beryl, housing construction would have warranted hoisting a yellow caution flag for recession, Angry Bear, by New Deal democrat…

…immediate aftermath of recessions: Once we exclude government transfers — one of the important coincident metrics used by the NBER to date recessions — real personal income also declined -0.4%…