…Recession Alert, another similar – and totally transparent – system, Georg Vrba’s Business Cycle Index, also forecasts no recession within the next 12 months: Another statistician who helped decode ECRI’s…

Real personal income has completely made up its recession losses, now exceeds pre-recession peak The last of the 4 monthly coincident markers for whether the economy is in recession vs….

…come in later this month, it may need to be upgraded to a “recession warning.” The Bonddad Blog “A Near-Recession July 2025 Jobs Report,” Angry Bear by New Deal democrat…

…in recession as early as March of ’08, and that the recession was a bit different from most earlier recessions. In fact, at about the same time, I also prebutted…

I worked with Dwaine Van Vuuren of Recession Alert a few months ago on using the effective demand limit to detect recessions. He said the effective demand limit gave the…

It is good to look back at the 1980 recession and analyze what happened. First, the recession officially started in July of 1980. Be that as it may, the business…

…before the onset of recessions: Third, as I pointed out when I went on “recession watch,” the economy is a “second order chaotic system.” That occurs when the thing being…

Forecasting the 2020 election: the economic baseline (or, don’t count on a recession) Four years ago, I decided to use my set of “long leading indicators” to forecast the 2016…

…When backdated, the model has a perfect track record of identifying recessions in real time going back to at least 1960. Sahm rule indicator Note: Shaded bars indicate recessions; dotted…

…are the risks of it unraveling into a recession? Powell’s label of “curious” got me thinking about the other “curiosities” of the labor market during this cycle. The pandemic recession…