…going into recession after recession culminating with Great Depression. In fact, between the end of the 1920s Depression and the start of the Great Depression (not including either one), the…

…recessions, and finally the sharp rise and fall due to the Great Recession. [In the YoY graph some of these extremes are displaced by about a year.]   Graph 1…

…gains taxes anyway, so the method above is safe to use for recession forecasting. Everyone needs to have the advantage to protect themselves well before a recession starts, not just…

…was a recession. Note, that there also were recessions when the teen unemployment rate rose but the minimum wage was was unchanged. A rising minimum wage during a business expansion…

…(not surprisingly better for recession3 and recession5). for recession 3 (year to year decline starting in any of three years of real gdp logit recession3 hpreal tloansgdp lrgdp year cn*…

…doing reasonably well, a recession could still come in via the producer side. A Producer-Led Recession Remains Viable As usual, clicking over and reading should be educational for you, and…

…economy has gone into recession. Some time later, I read his op-ed. I immediately thought “what about the growth recession of 1965?” Some time later, I looked at data and…

The Debut of the Deranged DOOOMers, 2021 edition: No, the strong advance of the Index of Leading Indicators is not forecasting a recession Five to ten years ago, I used…

…for any sustained period of time is an excellent harbinger of recession. Not only have they turned negative YoY in advance of every recession in the past 50+ years, but…

Long leading indicators embedded in Q2 GDP suggest a recession is near at hand  – by New Deal democrat Where does the economy go from here?  If it’s not in recession,…