…have previously been consistent with recessions, with the exception of 1966, although frequently the actual recession hasn’t started until there has been a -40% decline: And it certainly looks like…

…1981) it went down no more than -0.7% over a 3 month period during the recession, and ended the recession at a higher level than when the recession started. In…

I promised a second entry in the series, Soft Landing this time it’s monetary. The question is why didn’t the FED’s monetary tightening cause a recession. There certainly was tightening,…

…yellow “recession watch” flag for this sector. At the same time, I continue to suspect that we are rising from lows in the most leading metrics, and no “recession warning”…

…in this respect that below 2.0 percent inflation rates were largely a post-Great Recession story. Prior to the Great Recession, inflation generally ran somewhat about 2.0 percent. Inflation, as measured…

…examples are heavy truck sales and the unemployment rate: they are over-sensitive to the downside: they lead going in to recessions, but lag coming out. The S&P 500 stock market…

…You know I disagree with BarryO’s idiotic acceptance of (1)-(7), most especially (2)and (4). I’ve been using the phrase “cursive-Z recession” since at least December of 2009; the only person…

One of the nice things about the Kauffman Foundation’s Blogger Conference is the time to let the mind wander and look at data after having your brain scoured. One of…

…previously-unneeded-and-therefore-unused lines of credit was evidence that we were not in a recession [warning: PDF the reading of which will damage your brain; superstitious Christians should note the Working Paper…

The Reserve Bank of New Zealand released a paper by Nicolas Groshenny last month—I’m behind on planning for Chanukkah; that I got to a paper from New Zealand about U.S….