…jobs typically decline before any recession occurs. But on a YoY% basis, these jobs are only 0.1%, which is very anemic although not necesarily recessionary. Temporary jobs, which have declined…

…that is shows at the line): The above recession indicator has been triggered for the last two months. But no recession indicator is perfect, and two other components are missing…

…two exceptions were the late 1980s, where the pre-recession decline was -28.2%, and 2007, where the pre-recession decline was -25.6%.  Now let’s update housing units under construction with the typical…

Initial claims continue weakening trend, but are not signaling recession this year Initial jobless claims declined -2,000 (from an upwardly revised 233,000), to 231,000 last week, vs. the 50+ year…

Signs and portents of an employment slowdown and a near-term recession  – by New Deal democrat I continue to believe that a recession – possibly a deep if relatively brief…

…many macroeconomic forecasters predicted that a recession would have started by now in the USA. I forget who placed the probability at 100%. In spite of sltightly disappointing 0.4% (1.6%…

…recession starting in the next few months. A “warning” would mean that a recession is likely, and almost imminently. Last month I concluded this piece with the statement: “In the…

…he discussed the fact that, historically, private residential construction as a share of GDP on average peaked 7 quarters before the onset of recessions, followed by motor vehicle and other…

…happened together and the further assertion that derivates [sic] caused the recession rather than the more likely story that derivatives were the victim of the recession. I’m pretty sure Cantab…

…the plot in the graphic is showing a different path to a recession. The numbers show that as the economy recovers from a recession it will employ more capital and…