Real wages for nonsupervisory employees make 19 month low, but no recession signaled Yesterday’s CPI report showed that prices increased 0.8% in February. Meanwhile, the jobs report indicated that average…

Jobless claims continue to trend higher, but no recession signal yet  – by New Deal democrat Initial jobless claims rose 9,000 to 244,000 last week, a 7.5 month high. The…

…orders index has always fallen below 50 within 6 months before a recession. Recessions have typically started once the overall index falls below 50, and usually below 48. This is…

…alternatively, “rolling recession.”  For example, over the weekend Liz Ann Sonders of Schwab told “Wall Street Week” that housing is already in a recession, but the larger services side of…

…markers determine are in his weekly analysis done on a daily basis for various markers. Updating 3 high frequency indictors: no recession yet, but no paucity of yellow flags –…

Using the stock market and unemployment as an easy and timely coincident recession indicator  – by New Deal democrat My fellow forecaster Bob Dieli has a measure he calls “DeltaDelta,” basically an…

…Because neither spread has been inverted for as long as they have at present without a recession having already started. In fact in a few cases the recession has been…

…a whole contracted in May. This is enough to warrant a “recession watch.” Should the headline numbers follow, that would warrant a “recession warning.” As I’ve said in the past,…

…means that, as of today, the “recession watch” forecast signal continues in place. The Bonddad Blog “Economically weighted ISM services + manufacturing warrant Recession Watch,” Angry Bear by New Deal democrat….

…in time recession, and the latter usually crosses the “0” line to the downside within a month or two before or after the onset of a recession. In fact, real…