…in billions, quarterly data. Graph 2 – Equity Extractions and PCE Change The traces start rising together after the 1991 recession. There’s a disconnect during the 2001 recession, when PCE…

…the last 12 months is a sign that we are heading toward a recession. (see 22:30 minute point of video.) The Barclays’ message coincides exactly with the principle of Effective…

…the last two recessions or start heading upward toward another recession. The movement of the plot line above can be used in another graph to signal the probability of a…

…be no recession and the economy will stabilize by the end of the year. Yet, I see a higher probability of recession than he does. The economy is already weak…

On the blogosphere, there is an interesting debate about whether, when the next recession arrives, interests rates will be high enough that the normal approach of cutting the target federal…

Could an Oil Patch decline turn a 2019 slowdown into an outright recession? One of the items I mentioned in my piece yesterday at Seeking Alpha was the recent big…

Industrial production rebounds; another message of slowdown, no recession Industrial Production is the King of Coincident Indicators. When industrial production peaks and troughs coincides more often than any other indicator…

January real personal income consistent with either slowdown or incipient recession Real personal income (less government transfers) is one of the four coincident indicators the NBER looks at in determining…

…OASI and DI Trust Funds, Reflecting Pandemic and Recession Effects“ The Trustees have better information than I have and assumed a lower unemployment rate with effects of the recession lasting…

Updated US wealth distribution data shows how bad the Great Recession and its aftermath were, and how effective the pandemic assistance has been   The desert of new economic data…