…in 1985 and 1995) as well as prior to recessions: Still, the LMCI has not declined nearly as much as it typically has prior to most of the recessions in…

…“mini-recession”. But the producer side is still *in* a shallow recession now. If the economic slowdown we are in is going to metastasize into a recession, it is probably going…

Initial claims continue to show slowdown, but no imminent recession I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any signs of…

Initial jobless claims still negative, but no recession signal As you know, I’ve been monitoring initial jobless claims closely for the past several months, to see if there are any…

Real final sales and inventories as portents of recession  – by New Deal democrat As I have mentioned previously from time to time, I read people who have interesting things…

…before the onset of a recession, except for two times in the 1950s where it turned negative YoY 4 and 5 months into the recession. There have been some false…

…One a recession starts there is no backing away from it (as if we could). Scenes from the employment report: important leading and coincident indicators of recession  – by New…

…it has been at the very bottom of all but the deepest recessions. And yet we’re not in a recession, at least not yet. So something *is* different this time….

– by New Deal democrat I haven’t “officially” updated my take on the long leading indicators – those that forecast a recession at least one year beforehand – in almost…

…Volcker-induced recession, when they both turned down simultaneously. Note also that there have been 5 occasions when the goods producing sector turned negative YoY without a recession occurring.  Second, while…