…a recession. There are two questions. FIrst how did inflation decline without high (or even normal) unemployment ? Second how did the FED’s inflation fighting fail to cause a recession…

…hours below its post pandemic peak: Only once in the past 75 years, in 1967, has a decline this much not occurred without a recession following shortly, if we were…

…I thought I’d take a look. So here we are. (*incidentally, those peaked in 2014, about 5 years after the expansion’s start, suggesting the next recession would occur in about…

…also shown): In the past, it has typically taken a -10% decline or more before the onset of a recession. After a minor decline in 2023, in the past four…

…units under construction – the real economic activity in the housing construction data – are getting close to their recession caution signal. To wit, the longest leading signal in the…

…that, in terms of job growth, left-behind counties experienced three of their four worst years since the Great Recession on Trump’s watch. The pandemic recession hit those counties harder than…

…to a recession at least one of the two has been in a downturn, with the other at most flat. But while manufacturing employment has been flat in the past…

Housing permits and starts stabilize, but construction comes close to generating yellow recession caution signal  – by New Deal democrat There was good news and bad news in this morning’s…

…shortly before or during recessions. The U3 unemployment rate rose 0.2% to 4.3%, triggering the “Sahm rule” recession indicator. The U6 underemployment rate rose 0.5% to 8.2%, 1.4% above its…

…2019 and 2023 allows us to largely ignore the dramatic swings in employment and wages in 2020 and 2021, which were most impacted by the pandemic recession and initial recovery….