…(orange line). At this point in time, the orange line is dropping as it did before the two previous recessions. The current situation looks similar to the late 90’s when…

…to the paradgm spelled out by Prof. Edward E. Leamer typically housing turns down first among consumer expenditures, followed by cars, followed by nondurable goods, before a recession hits. Right…

…1908. And that was no ordinary recession. The Panic of 1907 occurred in October of 1907, close to the middle of that recession. And who saved the day? Was it…

…most important datapoints made new highs. Single family permits, which are just as leading as permits overall, but much less volatile, made yet another post-recession high. Further, the three month…

…dates. We all know about the great recession which became great and worldwide September 2008. Shinzo Abe was elected December 2012 and promptly nominated Kuroda and promised non-standard monetary stimulus….

…jobs: temporary jobs, construction, and manufacturing. In the past I’ve shown that at least 2 of the 3 sectors contract for a number of months before any recession begins. Here’s…

…declines were in excess of 30%. The recent decline, at roughly 12%, is almost identical to the decline prior to the 2001 recession. Why the 2001 recession happened despite the…

An Increasingly Divergent US Economy Lots of people have been huffing and puffing about whether or not the US economy will go into a recession in the near future, with…

…the US economy was officially in recession, but certainly the first part of the decade was dominated by the recession that happened at the endo of the prvious decade. Somehow…

…Recession: consumer prices. That’s because during recessions, consumer price growth decelerates, as does wage growth, which continues to decelerate well after the recession bottoms out. Since monthly changes in inflation…